Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Lake Abitibi

Canada: Water surpluses continue to emerge in southern British Columbia

Canada: Water surpluses continue to emerge in southern British Columbia

The forecast through April indicates water conditions much the same as in the prior three months, with some overall shrinkage of anomalies in the eastern half of the country. One notable difference is the emergence of widespread intense surplus conditions in southern British Columbia. After April, much of the eastern half of the country will transition to deficit, retaining exceptional deficits in eastern Quebec, central Quebec, and the central Quebec/Ontario border. Deficits in the western provinces will diminish slightly, and intense surpluses will persist in parts of southern BC.

Canada: Water deficits persist in Quebec

Canada: Water deficits persist in Quebec

The forecast for Canada through February indicates that exceptional deficits will shrink in Quebec, though a vast expanse will remain surrounding Lake Mistassini. Deficits will also persist in southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia. Surpluses are forecast across Ontario from Kenora District in the west to Quebec; Manitoba from Hudson Bay reaching southwest to Lake Winnipeg; northwestern Saskatchewan; and southern British Columbia. After February much of Ontario will transition from surplus to mostly moderate deficit.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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