The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the coast. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain widespread. Central and northern Turkey will transition from surplus to moderate deficit.
Widespread exceptional water deficits are expected to moderate considerably through April, though deficits reaching extreme intensity are forecast in southeastern Iran. After April, deficits will increase overall in extent and severity, and are expected to be especially intense in Iran from the Persian Gulf to the Afghan border, and in southern Iraq near Basrah. Moderate deficits will emerge in Azerbaijan.
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