The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of June 2020 through May 2021 include: Venezuela, French Guiana, Estonia, Latvia, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Sahel (Africa), and British Columbia (Canada). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 4 September 2020.
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will retreat from the Pearl River Basin, downgrade in the Yellow River Basin, and moderate in the lower and middle regions of the Yangtze. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia and Xinjiang but intensify in Yunnan and Guangdong. Surpluses will increase in North Korea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of April 2020 through March 2021 include: Venezuela, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, northern European Russia, and British Columbia, Canada. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 July 2020.
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