Widespread and exceptional water deficits may emerge in Iran, southern Afghanistan, and Pakistan while deficits may continue to emerge in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, as seen in the 12-month composite map (below). The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015.

Iran's director of National Drought Warning and Monitoring Center has stated that all of the country's 31 provinces suffer from drought to some extent, and that normal rainfall will not be able to replenish depleting groundwater reserves. Adding to that sense of urgency, the senior advisor at Iran's Department of Environment has said that if the current consumption pattern continues, the country will turn into a desert in 15 years. In Maharashtra, India the government has declared a "drought-like condition" in 34 percent of the state,and imposed a 'drought surcharge' on fuel, liquor, cigarettes and jewelry to raise money for affected farmers.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Deficits may emerge across much of Iran October through December; and in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and across northern India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. These conditions are expected to increase in extent and severity January through March; moderate surpluses may emerge in southern India and western Odisha. There may be localized exceptional surpluses in southern India after March.

In the April through June time frame exceptional deficits may persist in Iran with moderate to severe deficits in Afghanistan, while deficits in Pakistan and India may decrease in severity. 

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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