Water deficits are forecast to continue emerging in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south, as seen in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses are forecast to persist in the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.

Water is currently being rationed in some communities in Mexico's southern state of Oaxaca. Climate change, says Oaxaca's Secretary of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, is responsible for the increase in rare pests and ailments resulting in recent severe losses in coffee and sorghum crops. In Michuacan, the prolonged drought has caused unemployment but offers of placement abroad are met with skepticism by locals. 

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits in southern Mexico are forecast to persist and to increase in extent by May. Deficits may emerge on the Baja Peninsula in May and become more widespread and severe through July. Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula for much of the forecast period, but may be especially severe in the spring.

Deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala. By the end of the forecast period – June through August – abnormal (3-5 years) water deficits are forecast for much of Central America.  (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2017 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.