Mexico & Central America: Water deficits forecast to continue in southern Mexico

Water deficits are forecast to continue emerging in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south, as seen in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses are forecast to persist in the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.

Water is currently being rationed in some communities in Mexico's southern state of Oaxaca. Climate change, says Oaxaca's Secretary of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, is responsible for the increase in rare pests and ailments resulting in recent severe losses in coffee and sorghum crops. In Michuacan, the prolonged drought has caused unemployment but offers of placement abroad are met with skepticism by locals. 

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits in southern Mexico are forecast to persist and to increase in extent by May. Deficits may emerge on the Baja Peninsula in May and become more widespread and severe through July. Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula for much of the forecast period, but may be especially severe in the spring.

Deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala. By the end of the forecast period – June through August – abnormal (3-5 years) water deficits are forecast for much of Central America.  (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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