Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook May 2023

4 May 2023

OVERVIEW

Our May 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience significantly warmer temperatures than normal, with exceptional anomalies occurring in many areas, including South and Southeast Asia, eastern South America, western Africa, and northern Canada.

The precipitation forecast has significantly more uncertainty (hashed areas) than we typically see and generally anticipates mild anomalies overall. However, there will likely be pockets of intense precipitation anomalies in regions such as northern South America, South Asia, and central Africa.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

The temperature forecast indicates exceptionally higher than normal temperatures in many regions of the world, including South America, Southeast Asia, Europe, Canada, and Africa. Smaller pockets of cooler temperatures are anticipated in central Africa and South Asia.

The forecast for the United States anticipates mostly normal conditions to mild anomalies, with some concentrations of moderate to severe anomalies across the continental states.

Areas expected to endure moderate to severe warm anomalies include:

Northern Idaho, near the Idaho Panhandle National Forests.
Western Montana, near the Blackfeet Indian Reservation.
Northern Alaska, along the northern coast of the North Slope Borough.

Along the east coast, some coastal regions will experience moderate cool anomalies, such as:

Eastern North Carolina, throughout coastal regions of the Outer Banks.
Southeast Georgia, near Cumberland Island.
Northern Florida, near the cities of Gainesville and Jacksonville.

Most of Canada can expect much warmer than normal temperatures.

The following areas are expected to observe extreme to exceptionally higher than normal temperatures:

Alberta, throughout much of the province.
Western Northwest Territories, with the highest concentration of anomalies in northern areas of the Inuvik region.
Nunavut, throughout much of the region and into the Queen Elizabeth Islands.
Northern Quebec, throughout the Kativik territory.

Central areas of Mexico can expect exceptionally warm temperatures, as well as much of Central America.

Areas expected to experience exceptional temperature include:

Coastal areas of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. Further inland, areas near the state of Guanajuato and Mexico City can expect similarly intense temperatures. In the southern state of Chiapas, severely warmer temperatures are expected.
Honduras, throughout much of the country. Similarly intense anomalies persist throughout western Nicaragua, and into Costa Rica and Panama.
Haiti, throughout the majority of the country.

South America is expected to endure exceptionally warmer temperatures, widespread throughout the northern and central areas of the continent.

Areas expected to experience these higher temperatures include:

Northwestern into western Colombia, beginning near the city of Barranquilla and moving throughout coastal regions of western Peru, western Ecuador, and northern Chile.
Southern Venezuela, throughout much of the Río Negro region.
Brazil, with anomalies spreading throughout the majority of the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast regions of the country.
Much of the Guianas, with Suriname and French Guiana experiencing moderate to severe temperature anomalies.
Southern Argentina, throughout northwestern regions of the Santa Cruz province.

Europe is expected to endure widespread warm anomalies throughout most of the region.

Areas anticipated to endure intensely warmer temperatures include:

Spain, with the highest intensity temperature anomalies occurring near Gibraltar and spreading north into areas near the city of Córdoba.
France, spanning the entirety of the country. Exceptionally warm temperatures are expected throughout the Brittany Peninsula.
Southern Germany, with severe anomalies appearing near the city of Munich.
Western and central Belgium, with severe anomalies spanning from the country’s western border to the city of Brussels. Similarly intense anomalies are expected in western and central areas of the Netherlands.
Italy, with severe anomalies appearing in pockets near the cities of Milan, Florence, and throughout the Italian Peninsula.
United Kingdom, spanning much of the region with extremely warm temperatures appearing throughout much of its southern regions.
Ireland, with exceptionally warm temperatures covering the entire country.

Africa can anticipate widespread warm anomalies throughout much of the continent, with some relatively small areas of cool anomalies in central regions.

Areas forecast to experience exceptionally higher temperatures include:

Western Algeria, in northern areas of the towns of Oum El Assel and Tabelbala.
Central Mauritania, throughout the regions of Chinguetti, Tichit, and Magta-Lahjar.
Senegal, throughout much of the country, continuing throughout Gambia and western Guinea into Sierra Leone. These anomalies continue along the Gulf of Guinea into southern Nigeria.
Western coastal regions of Cameroon, spreading into Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
Horn of Africa, with isolated anomalies occurring in northern and central Somalia.
Central to eastern South Africa and Lesotho, with similarly intense temperatures appearing further north in southern Botswana.
Northern Madagascar, near the city of Fenoarivo.
Northern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), in central areas of the Ango region.

Cool anomalies of varying intensity are expected in the following regions:

Southern DRC, with extreme to exceptional cool anomalies expected north of the Upemba National Park.
Central to north Kenya, with moderate cool anomalies appearing within Namunyak Wildlife Conservation Trust and continuing into the country’s northern border.

In the Middle East, much of its southern areas are expected to experience temperature anomalies, most being severely warmer than normal.

The forecast indicates severe to extreme warm anomalies in the following areas:

Southern Saudi Arabia, covering much of the Sharurah, Al-Ahsa, and Al Udayd regions.
Yemen, throughout much of the country. Northeastern areas of the Hadhramaut Governorate are expected to see exceptionally warm temperatures.
Western Oman, with the highest intensity anomalies occurring in northwestern areas of the Dhofar Governorate.

While much of Central Asia is expected to experience normal conditions to mild anomalies, warmer than normal temperatures are expected to be widespread throughout Russia.

The forecast indicates that the following regions of Russia will experience warm anomalies of varying intensity:

The majority of the Srednekolymsky District, expected to endure exceptional warm anomalies. These anomalies spread further west into the Bilibinsky District.
Northern areas of the Nizhnekolymsky District.
North-central areas of the Olenyoksky District.
West-central to southern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai.

Most countries in South Asia are forecast to experience cooler than normal temperatures of varying intensity. These areas include:

Much of India, spanning the entirety of the country’s northern, central, and eastern regions.
Central and northern Pakistan, with the highest intensity cooling occurring throughout the provinces of Punjab and the city of Islamabad.
Western and central Nepal, throughout the provinces of Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Lumbini, and Gandaki.

Exceptional warm anomalies are expected to cover the majority of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Areas experiencing these intense temperatures include:

Myanmar, throughout the majority of the country, except for the Falam province, which is expected to see mostly moderate warm anomalies.
Laos, throughout the entire country, with the exception of the Savannakhet Province, expected to observe moderate to severe warm anomalies.
Vietnam, of which the majority of the country is expected to endure severe to extreme warm anomalies, except for areas near Hanoi, where somewhat normal conditions are anticipated.
The entirety of the islands of Indonesia. Some areas in northern Kalimantan can expect severe to extreme anomalies.
The southern islands of the Philippines, primarily Mindanao.
The vast majority of Papua and Papua New Guinea.

Much of the northeastern areas of East Asia are expected to experience warm anomalies of varying intensity, with the region’s western areas expected to see mild to moderately cooler temperatures.

The following areas can expect moderate to severely warmer than normal anomalies:

Eastern China, throughout the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and central Inner Mongolia. Similarly intense temperatures are also expected in coastal areas of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Much farther west, areas in southern and central Tibet can anticipate mild to moderate cool anomalies.
Eastern regions of Mongolia, near areas north of the town of Chinggis.
Japan, throughout the island of Honshu.
North and South Korea, with mild to moderate warm anomalies appearing throughout both countries.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

The forecast for the United States anticipates moderate to severe precipitation surpluses in:

Eastern Washington, near the city of Spokane.
Northeastern to central Oregon, near the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest.
Central Idaho, near the Salmon River Mountains.

The forecast for Canada anticipates moderate to severe precipitation deficits in the following areas:

Northern Ontario, in northern regions of the Kenora District.
Eastern Quebec and southern Newfoundland and Labrador, near the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Northern areas of Nunavut and southern regions of Victoria Island.

In Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, mostly mild to moderate deficits are expected to occur in:

Central Mexico, in regions near Mexico City.
Northern Nicaragua, spreading further south into northern Costa Rica.

Northern countries in South America can expect pockets of intense deficit, including:

Northern to southern areas of Colombia, in the department of Antioquia and moving further north near the city of Cartagena.
Western Venezuela, near the city of Merida.
Northern Brazil, throughout the State of Roraima.
Isolated areas of northwestern to central Peru, north of the city in Jaén and spreading southeast along the Huallaga River.
Western Guyana, in the far western regions of the region of Potaro-Siparuni.

Surpluses are expected in:

North-central Brazil, throughout the state of Para into the states of Maranhao and Piaui.
Areas along the western coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador.

Europe, though less certain this month, anticipates mild deficits in the following countries:

Spain, west of the city of Cáceres‎.
South-central areas of Portugal’s Beja District.

Africa can expect intense precipitation surpluses in the following areas:

Northeastern Ethiopia, in regions north of the city of Dire Dawa. Similarly intense surpluses continue throughout southern Eritrea, Djibouti, and northern areas of Somalia.
Central Niger, throughout areas near the town of Arlit.
Western and southern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), in the province of Kongo Central, which crosses its southern border into northwestern Angola.
Southern regions of the Republic of the Congo, appearing near the port city of Pointe-Noire and continuing along the country’s southern border.
Western areas of Tanzania, appearing in pockets south of Lake Victoria and into areas north of Lake Malawi.

Additionally, some areas can expect deficits of varying intensity, including:

Northern DRC, in northern areas of the Eastern Bomu Wildlife Reserve into northern regions of the town of Ango.
Southeastern Central African Republic, appearing near the city of Bangassou and spreading along the country’s southern border and crossing into areas near the DRC’s Garamba National Park.

The forecast anticipates mostly mild deficits in the Middle East, in the following areas:

North-central Saudi Arabia, throughout much of the Hail province.
Iraq, widespread throughout the country.

Surplus is anticipated in the following areas:

Western Yemen, throughout regions near the city of Sana'a.
Western Azerbaijan, along the country’s western border.

Central Asia and Russia can expect isolated areas of moderate to severe anomalies, in areas such as:

Southwest Russia, in central areas of the Tyumen Oblast. Similar deficits carry on further east into central areas of the Parabelsky District.
Eastern Russia, beginning in coastal regions of the Allaikhovsky District and moving further south into southern coastal regions of the Magadan Oblast.

South Asia can expect intense anomalies, with exceptional surpluses occurring in its northern countries, and deficits of similar intensity in its far eastern territories.

Exceptional surpluses in:

Northern to central Pakistan, with the most intense anomalies appearing throughout central areas of the province of Punjab into the similarly named Indian state.
Across northern India, with the most intense anomalies appearing near the city of New Delphi and further west into the state of Haryana.

Intense deficits are expected throughout the region’s eastern countries, including:

Bhutan, throughout much of the country.
Far east India, spreading throughout the states of Meghalaya and Manipur.
Western coastal regions of central to southern India.

Much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific can expect normal to mild conditions, with some notable deficits in the following areas:

Northernmost Myanmar, throughout the Putao District.
Western Laos, along the country’s western border and into the Bokeo province.
Indonesia, in the southern coastal regions of the island of Kalamantan.

East Asia can anticipate a mixture of moderate deficits and surpluses in the following regions:

Western China, throughout the region of Tibet.
Northwestern China, in northeastern regions of the territory of Xinjiang into the Barköl Kazakh Autonomous County.

Australia & New Zealand can expect normal to mild conditions, with some notable anomalies occurring in the following regions:

Northern Western Australia, with surpluses occurring in coastal regions near the Shire of Ashburton.
Southwestern areas of the southern tip of Western Australia, with deficits appearing in places near the city of Albany.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released May 2, 2023 which includes forecasts for May 2023 through December 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued April 25 through April 31, 2023.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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