ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST May 2023

16 May 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2023 and running through January 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List May 16, 2023 (pdf).

United States: The forecast indicates surpluses in southwestern and western states to persist throughout January 2024 or longer.

Canada: Many provinces are expected to experience widespread deficits until July 2023 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Mild to moderate deficits are expected to persist until July, with deficits in Central America expected to intensify in October 2023.

South America: Widespread deficits are expected to persist until August 2023 or longer.

Europe: Widespread deficits in Continental Europe are expected to persist until October 2023 or longer.

Africa: Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated to linger in central regions of Africa until October 2023 or longer.

Middle East: Transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia are expected to persist, which will change into exceptional deficits by November 2023.

Central Asia and Russia: Widespread anomalies of varying intensity are expected to continue throughout western and central Russia throughout July 2023 or longer.

South Asia: Varying mixes of surplus and transitional conditions in Pakistan are expected to change into mostly transitional conditions during November 2023 to January 2024.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Mostly mild deficits are expected to linger, with moderate deficits emerge by October 2023.

East Asia: Western regions of East China are expected to experience exceptional deficits, expected to emerge November 2023 to January 2024.

Australia & New Zealand: Exceptional surpluses in southeastern Australia are expected to persist throughout January 2024 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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