The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates that water deficits in the region will shrink considerably. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast for much of the Amazon Basin in Brazil and eastern and southern states, but intense deficits will increase in central Brazil. Deficits will persist in much of Chile. Areas of surplus include Venezuela’s Orinoco Delta, central Colombia, and northern Peru.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, persisting primarily in Brazil and Chile. In Brazil, intense deficits are forecast in Amapá, Pará, Maranhão, Bahia and its smaller east coast neighbors, Paraná, and São Paulo State. Areas of surplus include Colombia, southern Venezuela, Ecuador, northern Peru, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2019 through July 2020 include: Canada, Chile, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 November 2019
Among warm anomalies in the February Outlook the forecast indicates much higher than normal temperatures in Southeast Asia and along China’s southeast coast and in Taiwan. Conditions are expected to be wetter than normal along the lower Yangtze River, in the US Southwest, and around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa.
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