The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2019 through July 2020 include: Canada, Chile, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 November 2019
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits will remain intense in Northern Europe, especially in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Other areas of intense deficit include Luxembourg, northern Germany, central France and the Loire River, and along the Drava River through Austria. Areas of surplus include Scotland, central Italy and around the Adriatic Sea, Serbia, and northern Romania.
The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.
Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe and the Balkans as deficits emerge. Deficits are also forecast for Northern Europe with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Intense surpluses are forecast for Hungary and for eastern Ukraine into Russia, with both deficits and surpluses in European Russia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula but retreat in France, with deficits emerging in Auvergne. Moderate surpluses will persist in Ireland, England, and Normandy.
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