The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade through February though intense deficits are forecast for Yemen’s western and eastern thirds and severe deficits in Saudi Arabia’s large south-central region of Riyadh. Surpluses will persist in western Iran north of the Red Sea and across the border into Iraq and will remain intense. Surpluses are also forecast along Iran’s western Caspian Sea coast; north of Kirkuk, Iraq; and in eastern Turkey.
The forecast through February indicates intense water surpluses on the Ob, Vakh, Pur, and Taz Rivers in Russia. Surpluses will be widespread in the Middle Ob region and the Yenisei River watershed. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, reaching across the northern border into the Ural River watershed in Russia. Surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and along the Zerafshon River in Ubekistan. Deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and central Kyrgyzstan.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region. Moderate deficits are forecast for northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border well into southern Russia, but deficits may be severe along the Ural River. Surpluses are forecast in the eastern and southern Ob River watershed of Russia, northern and eastern Kazakhstan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will moderate overall in Central Asia, though conditions may be more severe along the Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan, the Zaravshan River in eastern Uzbekistan, and the Ural River through northwestern Kazakhstan into Russia. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in the Caucasus. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and in the Tom River watershed, and wide band of surplus will extend to the Gulf of Ob.
In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.
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