Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Ob River

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in N Sakha & Transbaikal

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in N Sakha & Transbaikal

The forecast through July indicates water surpluses in the eastern Volga region, Middle and Lower Ob, northern Sakha, and Transbaikal. Deficits will be intense in the Yenisei’s eastern tributaries and moderate in Turkmenistan and Mangystau, Kazakhstan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in the Ob Basin, deficits in the Lena

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in the Ob Basin, deficits in the Lena

The forecast through January 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in the Ob River Watershed and widespread deficits in the Lena River Watershed. Surpluses in northern Kazakhstan will remain exceptional and surpluses on the Amu Darya River will become exceptional.

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surplus on Amu Darya & Middle Yenisei

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surplus on Amu Darya & Middle Yenisei

The forecast through December indicates water surpluses in northern European Russia, the Ob River Watershed, and the Middle Yenisei River. Areas of intense deficit include the Lower Yenisei region and the Lena River Watershed. Exceptional surpluses will emerge on the Amu Darya River.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in W Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in W Kazakhstan

The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses from northern European Russia through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink. Deficits are forecast for the Taz, Lower Yenisei, and Tunguska River regions in Russia and in western Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus will increase in Ob River Basin

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus will increase in Ob River Basin

The forecast through April indicates widespread intense water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits are forecast for the Central Siberian Plateau, north and southeast of Lake Baikal, and in western Kazakhstan.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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