The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates widespread exceptional water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits will persist on the Gulf of Ob and increase in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River and the Upper Lena River regions. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kostanay in northern Kazakhstan.
Through January 2020 exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Northern European Plain in Russia, the Ob River region, and the Upper Reaches of the Volga Watershed. Intense deficits will persist north and southeast of Lake Baikal. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border.
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
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