The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The widespread exceptional water deficits that have dominated Afghanistan in recent months will moderate through December though deficits will remain more intense northeast of Kabul. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Pakistan. In India, deficits will also moderate but will be intense along the Tungabhadra River in the southwest, and in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northernmost India, Uttar Pradesh, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
Through October, exceptional water deficits will dominate Afghanistan’s west and northwest. In India, moderate deficits will cover much of the southern two-thirds of the country with more intense deficits in western Telangana, Karnataka, southeastern Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and central Chhattisgarh. Surpluses will downgrade but remain intense in Bangladesh, and will shrink and moderate in Nepal, though remaining exceptional along the Gandaki River.
Intense water deficits are forecast to persist in central India and western Karnataka through April 2018. In the near-term through January, deficits will continue to emerge across India’s northern half and may be exceptional in Haryana and Punjab; moderate deficits are forecast for Afghanistan and Pakistan. After January deficits will moderate except in central India and western Karnataka. Surpluses reaching exceptional severity are forecast through April in Bangladesh and Indian states to the east, as well as western Bhutan, Nepal, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, and Sri Lanka.
Intense water deficits are forecast through June 2018 in India’s central state of Madhya Pradesh. In the near-term, through December, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for central states, and moderate deficits will extend north. Gujarat will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur, but surpluses are expected to recede in other northeastern states and in West Bengal. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for Nepal and western Bhutan. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for Pakistan and western Afghanistan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2017 through June 2018 include: Amapá (Brazil), Estonia, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Madhya Pradesh (India), western Cambodia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar, the Upper and Middle Yangtze River (China), and the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins and the Transvolga Region (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 October 2017.
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