The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, retreating from the Shandong Peninsula, the North China Plain, and Yunnan. Surpluses in southeastern China will remain widespread and the extent of exceptional anomalies will shift east, affecting Fujian, Jiangxi, and northern Guangxi. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for pockets of the Korean Peninsula. Deficits in northern Japan are expected to shrink and downgrade somewhat.
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and moderate in southeastern China, downgrade in Qinghai and western Tibet, and moderate in northeastern China. Deficits will shrink in Sichuan and in Yunnan but remain intense, and intense deficits in Henan and Shandong will disappear. Deficits in central Korea will shrink but remain severe in southern North Korea and into South Korea around Seoul. Deficits could be exceptional near Pyongyang.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water surpluses in southeastern China will shrink but remain widespread and intense in the Pearl River Basin with exceptional surpluses in Guangdong. Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Yellow (Huang He) River. Deficits will shrink in Henan and Hubei but will be intense. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in southern North Korea and across the border into South Korea, and in northern Japan.
The forecast through February indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficit from southern Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia to China’s western border, including areas of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Hebei, with deficits of somewhat lesser intensity reaching through Beijing and Shanxi. A vast block of intense surplus is expected from the Yangtze River through southeastern China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea.
The forecast through January indicates widespread surpluses south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and western Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet. Deficits are forecast for Hubei, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi, and Hebei. Deficits are expected to increase and intensify across southern Mongolia and from western Inner Mongolia, China through Xinjiang with conditions of both deficit and surplus in areas of transition. On the Korean Peninsula, moderate surpluses are forecast in the south and moderate deficits in the north.
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