WATCHING: United States, Central America and Northern South America, Europe, Coastal West Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. 

This blogpost presents a global overview of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies in the coming months. It is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 12 June 2015, a proprietary report on global water anomalies using observed temperature and precipitation through May 2015 and an ensemble of forecasts issued the last week of May 2015.

The map identifies significant water anomalies for the one year period beginning in March 2015 and running through February 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data. WSIM expresses anomalies in terms of return period. Return period describes how rare the surpluses (increasing intensity of blue) or deficits (increasing intensity of red) are relative to expectations. For example, an anomaly with a return period of 10 years would be expected to occur once every 10 years on average, based on historical distributions. Anomaly levels correspond to return periods: abnormal=3-5 years, moderate=5-10 years, severe=10-20 years, extreme 20-40 years, and exceptional=greater than 40 years.

NOTE: More detailed posts on each of the following regions will be available soon.

United States: Exceptional water deficit conditions are forecast to persist in California and intensify in the Pacific Northwest. Severe to extreme deficits are also forecast for portions of the US Northeast. Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for the Central/Southern US.

Central America and Northern South America:  Widespread extreme deficit conditions are forecast to emerge and intensify throughout Central America and Northern South America.

Europe:  Moderate to extreme water deficits are forecast for much of Europe, with the most intense deficits forecast for Portugal, Belarus, and Ukraine. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Scotland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, and parts of Turkey. 

Coastal West Africa:  Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist and intensify in a swath of countries in coastal West Africa from Côte D'Ivoire to the Congo. Further north, deficits in Mauritania are forecast to persist.

South Asia:  Most of India is forecast to experience mild to extreme water deficits, particularly in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Orissa. These deficits follow a pattern similar to last year's monsoon season.  

Southeast Asia and the Pacific:  Deficits in Southeast Asia are forecast to intensify to exceptional levels particularly in Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia. Similarly, exceptional deficits are forecast for Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Papua. Deficits are also forecast for the Philippines and additional eastern Indonesian provinces.



Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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