Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand. 

Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China. 

Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea. 

Exceptional surpluses in India will mostly dissipate, transitioning to moderate to severe surpluses. Exceptional deficits will remain in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Exceptional deficits will persist in regions east of Lake Baikal, northern coastal Russia, and regions of Central Asia and European Russia. Surpluses are expected to continue in isolated portions of northern Kazakhstan and central Russia. 

Widespread exceptional deficits will significantly diminish in size, but remain in portions of Brazil and the Guianas. Severe to exceptional surpluses will emerge in portions of the Amazon Rainforest and the Bolivarian Nations.   

Exceptional deficits will resolve in northwestern Mexico, but emerge in much of central Mexico. Small portions of Central America should expect moderate to severe surpluses. 

Pockets of exceptional deficits will remain in portions of Canada, primarily in the Prairie Provinces and the Northern Territories. Surpluses are expected in much of Nunavut. 

Widespread exceptional deficit in the Southwest is expected to mostly resolve, but remain in some portions of California, Nevada, and Utah, and Colorado. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in some Southern states. 

Exceptional deficits throughout the Middle East will decrease in size, but remain present in several regions. 

Surpluses in the Sahel and southern Africa will continue. Exceptional deficits in northern and central Africa will diminish in size, but remain in northwestern countries and near the Gulf of Guinea. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout central and eastern Europe. Surpluses will resolve in most of western Europe, but will remain in Spain, Portugal, and Norway. 

The forecast for May 2025 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2025 through January 2026 in northwestern and central Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Brazil, and northwestern to southeastern China. Areas expected to experience surplus include central and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, and portions of the Amazon rainforest.

In this installment of the Proof Point series, we detail current weather-related events affecting the Amazon rainforest and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts. 

Each month, ISciences reports on significant weather events occurring throughout the world and analyze how accurately our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) predicted them. In this series, we highlight the most severe global weather events which occurred during the month of April, and discuss the extent of their impact on the affected regions.

Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, leaving moderate surpluses in central and eastern portions of the country. Deficits are expected to spread in portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will diminish, though some regions will observe continuing severe to extreme surpluses. Isolated regions in Mainland Southeast Asia will observe exceptional deficits. 

Widespread surpluses in southwestern Russia will mostly diminish. Exceptional deficits are expected in portions of the Urals, European Russia, northern coastal Russia, and in regions east of Lake Baikal. 

Severe to exceptional deficits along the southern coast of Australia will dissipate, though some will continue in Victoria and New Zealand. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in Queensland.