South Asia: Intense water deficits forecast across central India
26 November 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2019 indicates exceptional water deficits in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh, India, as well as southeastern Pakistan. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for India’s Far Northeast. Moderate deficits are expected in Afghanistan and large pockets of southern Pakistan.
Surpluses ranging from severe to exceptional are forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Mizoram, India. Generally less intense surpluses are forecast for Nepal and Bangladesh. Surpluses are also expected along the Indus River in northern Pakistan.
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
Widespread exceptional deficits that have dominated Afghanistan in recent months will moderate overall through January, though deficits will remain more intense northeast of Kabul and along the Harirud River in the west. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Pakistan but may be more intense around Karachi and east of Hyderabad. Surpluses are forecast in northeastern Pakistan along the Indus River, and conditions of both surplus and deficit along parts of the Sutlej River.
In India, deficits will increase and intensify, blanketing a vast extent across the country’s girth, and will include exceptional deficits throughout Gujarat in the west and severe to exceptional deficits from Madhya Pradesh through Karnataka. Deficits are also expected in Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana, along with conditions of both deficit and surplus as transition occur. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Bihar, while India’s Far Northeast will see some extreme deficit conditions. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh in the north, Mizoram in the east near Bangladesh, and in neighboring Chittagong Division, Bangladesh. Some surpluses are forecast for northern Sri Lanka and pockets of Nepal and Bangladesh.
From February through April, deficits in India are expected to moderate overall and some regions in the country’s eastern third will normalize. However, intense deficits will persist throughout Gujarat and in Madhya Pradesh and along the Tungabhadra River through Karnataka. Surpluses are expected to re-emerge in the western Gangetic Plain, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Some generally moderate deficits are forecast for western Afghanistan and southwestern Pakistan but deficits will be more intense near Karachi.
The forecast for the final months – May through July – indicates primarily moderate deficits in India and pockets throughout the region. Some surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, northern Pakistan, along the Gandaki River in central Nepal, and pockets of Tami Nadu, India.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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