15 May 2019

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2019 and running through January 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast May 15, 2019 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through July indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity a vast area on either side of the Mississippi River. Exceptional anomalies are forecast around Sioux Falls, and along the Mississippi River on either side of Memphis and from Louisiana to the Gulf. Surpluses will increase in the Rockies and shrink slightly and moderate in California. In the Pacific Northwest, deficits will shrink in Washington; Oregon will transition from deficit to moderate surplus.

Canada: The forecast through July indicates that conditions from the westernmost point of the Ottawa River stretching east to the Gulf of St. Lawrence will transition out of exceptional water surplus to milder anomalies, while conditions around Montreal and near Ottawa transition to moderate surplus, and surpluses from Toronto to Lake Huron increase and intensify. Deficits will cover much of the nation, with intense deficits on Vancouver Island and surpluses in southeastern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through July indicates that intense water deficits observed in Mexico will downgrade considerably. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, expected in Baja and along the Pacific Coast from Sinaloa through Guerrero. Severe deficits are forecast for Tabasco and moderate deficits elsewhere around the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate deficits are also expected in Guatemala, El Salvador, Haiti, and western Cuba.

South America: The forecast through July indicates that the extent of exceptional water deficits on the continent will shrink somewhat but deficits will dominate much of the northern bulk. Exceptional deficits are forecast for French Guiana, Suriname, and southern Venezuela, central Brazil, the southern Amazon Basin, many Brazilian rivers, and along the Pacific Coast from Lima through the Atacama Desert. Surpluses are expected to increase in Paraguay and will be exceptional in central Paraguay.

Europe: The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for remaining areas of Europe and will be especially intense in southern Germany and along many rivers including the Danube, Drava, Allier, and Dordogne. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Ireland, and intense surpluses for southeastern Spain.

Africa: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and across its midsection from the Gulf of Guinea to the Horn of Africa but will intensify across northern Africa with exceptional deficits expected. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the south, with intense deficits in Namibia. Areas of surpluses include Tanzania, northern Madagascar, the mouth of the Congo River, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea.

Middle East: The forecast through July indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Tigris River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the Caspian coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Widespread, intense deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for Kuwait, southern Iraq, and west of the Euphrates. Severe deficits will emerge in central Iran’s Yazd Province.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan. Deficits will emerge in northern Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and around Aktobe in northwestern Kazakhstan. Surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will shrink and moderate overall, and deficits will emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. In the Volga region, surpluses will persist in the Lower Volga northeast of Volgograd, and deficits are forecast in the Middle Volga region.

South Asia: The forecast through July indicates exceptional water deficits in coastal Maharashtra, and severe to extreme deficits in a vast stretch across central India including much of Madya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and southern Odisha. In the south, deficits will downgrade in Tamil Nadu but intensify in Karnataka. Surpluses will remain intense and widespread across central Afghanistan. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Pakistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade from exceptional but remain widespread and severe in Thailand and moderate in Cambodia. Prior surpluses in Southeast Asia and Indonesia will nearly disappear as deficits emerge. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand, Malaysia, Borneo, pockets of Sumatra, southern Philippines, and Papua New Guinea.

East Asia: The forecast through July indicates that widespread water surpluses will nearly disappear in southeastern China but will persist in the south and will include exceptional anomalies. Taiwan will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Exceptional deficits will persist in western Inner Mongolia, and moderate to extreme deficits in Mongolia. Deficits are forecast between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Severe deficits are forecast for northern Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through July indicates that widespread, exceptional water deficits will shrink considerably. Severe to exceptional deficits are, however, forecast in northern Australia from the Kimberly region through Top End, Northern Territory and along the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Deficits will also be intense in the southern tip of Western Australia, Tasmania, New Caledonia, and North Island, New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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