Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook August 2019

5 August 2019

OVERVIEW
The August Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures in Iceland and Greenland, in particular, as well as other places around the world. Parts of Malaysia and Indonesia will be somewhat drier than normal. Significant wet anomalies are forecast for northern Mozambique.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Conditions in the southern Malay Peninsula are expected to be exceptionally drier than normal including Singapore. Severe to extreme dry anomalies are forecast for southern Sumatra, and moderate to extreme anomalies in Borneo and elsewhere in Indonesia. Mindanao, Philippines will be moderately drier than the norm. In Australia, the center of Western Australia will be moderately drier than normal; some moderate wet anomalies are forecast for north-central Queensland.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Primarily moderate wet anomalies are forecast along China’s southern coast, and in the North China Plain and around the Bohai Sea. Northern Laos will be moderately wetter than normal with similar conditions reaching into northern Vietnam and eastern Cambodia. Wet anomalies will be more intense in coastal Myanmar. Central Vietnam will see moderately drier than normal conditions.

India’s western coast will be somewhat wetter than the norm from Mumbai to Mangalore, as will Rajasthan in the northwest. Exceptionally drier than normal conditions are forecast in a pocket of northeastern Uttar Pradesh, with dry anomalies of lesser intensity in nearby Nepal. Central Pakistan is expected to be much wetter than normal.

In Central Asia, moderate dry anomalies are forecast scattered across central and eastern Kazakhstan and into Russia. Primarily moderate wet anomalies are expected in Russia from the Ural Mountains into the Western Siberian Plain.

Northern Turkey will be drier than normal with intense anomalies on the eastern shore of the Black Sea in Georgia. Moderate wet anomalies are expected in eastern Romania, southern Ukraine, Denmark and nearby regions of northern Germany, and in Ireland and Scotland.

Eastern Africa will be wetter than normal, with anomalies forecast for northeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, pockets of northeastern Zambia, and northern Mozambique. Conditions will be intense in northern Mozambique. Cameroon, Republic of the Congo, and western Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will also see moderate wet anomalies. Primarily moderate dry anomalies are forecast for Senegal, Gambia, western South Africa, and Ethiopia’s western border, though conditions could be severe in Gambia, Senegal, and Ethiopia

In the U.S., Alaska will be wetter than normal as will southern Florida and the Rocky Mountain States into Arizona and New Mexico. Wet anomalies are also expected in northwestern Mexico. Central Mexico will be drier than normal with anomalies trailing south. Anomalies will be intense in eastern Guadalajara and, to a lesser degree, west of Mexico City. Some primarily moderate dry anomalies are expected in central Guatemala and El Salvador. Eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama will be somewhat wetter than normal.

In South America, dry anomalies are forecast in the west from Ecuador through Peru and across the border into westernmost Brazil, pockets of Bolivia, and scattered through Chile and northwestern Argentina. Anomalies could reach extreme intensity in western Ecuador and severe intensity in central Peru. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast for central Venezuela, northern Guyana, northeastern Amazonas State in Brazil, and northern Salta and Santiago del Estero Provinces in northern Argentina. Anomalies will be extreme in western Bolívar State, Venezuela, and severe in Argentina.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast for Greenland and Iceland with exceptional conditions around Reykjavik. In Europe, moderately warmer than normal conditions are expected in southern Norway, northern United Kingdom, southern France, Spain, Switzerland, pockets of southern Italy, and eastern Romania. Much cooler than normal temperatures are forecast along the southern shore of the Black Sea in Turkey and Georgia, though southern Turkey can expect warmer than normal conditions.

European Russia will be cooler than the norm, while the vast area from the Siberian Plain east will be warmer than normal with some severe to exceptional anomalies in Irkutsk and in the north along the shores of the Laptev and East Siberian Seas. In Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and parts of southern Kazakhstan will be moderately warmer than normal, overall, but warm anomalies will be more intense in western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

In South Asia, northern Afghanistan will be warmer than the norm with exceptional anomalies west of Kabul. Northernmost Pakistan will be warmer as well, with cool anomalies in central Punjab, and moderate to severe warm anomalies in the southwest. India’s Far North and Far Northeast will be much warmer than normal, along with eastern states along the Bay of Bengal, and Bangladesh, much of Nepal, and parts of Bhutan. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast for southern India and Sri Lanka, and some cool anomalies in Rajasthan in the northwest.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Mongolia, China, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and much of Indonesia and the southern Philippines can expect warm anomalies of varying intensity. Areas of extreme to exceptional warm anomalies include: Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Taiwan in China; Honshu, Japan; and the Malay Peninsula, southern Sumatra, and southeastern Borneo.

In Australia, severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast around Brisbane in southeastern Queensland, with moderate anomalies reaching south past Sydney. Moderate warm anomalies are also forecast for southern Tasmania and Western Australia.

The Middle East can expect warmer than normal temperatures in much of the Arabian Peninsula, ranging from severe to exceptional. Likewise, intense warm anomalies are expected in southernmost Iraq and Kuwait. In Iran, southern provinces near the Persian Gulf will be extremely to exceptionally warmer than normal while the bulk of central and northeastern Iran can expect severe warm anomalies. Some cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for northeastern Iraq.

Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for many parts of Africa. Areas of extreme to exceptional intensity include: Algeria and nearby regions in southern neighboring nations, northwestern Sudan, Togo, Benin, northeastern Somalia, southern Kenya, coastal and northwestern Tanzania, Madagascar, and around Kinshasa, DRC. Severe warm anomalies are forecast in coastal West Africa, around the Gulf of Guinea, Angola, Botswana, western Ethiopia, and many other regions. Some pockets of moderate cool anomalies are expected in central DRC, and in eastern Uganda and east-central South Sudan.

In South America, moderate warm anomalies will cover much of the northern half of the continent punctuated with several vast pockets of intense anomalies, particularly in Brazil. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Pará, and Brazil’s easternmost states, and severe in western Amazonas. Intense anomalies will also trace a path along the Andes from Colombia, through Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and into Chile and Argentina. Central Bolivia and north-central Argentina are forecast to be moderately cooler than normal.

Warm anomalies are forecast throughout Central America and parts of Mexico and will include exceptional anomalies in Panama, Costa Rica, and along Mexico’s Pacific Coast from Mazatlan through Chiapas, and nearly as intense conditions in the Yucatan. Extreme anomalies are expected in Baja and north central Mexico. A pocket of cooler than normal temperatures is forecast along the border of Sonora and Chihuahua. Caribbean nations will be warmer than normal with exceptionally warmer temperatures in western Cuba and intense anomalies in Jamaica.

Much of the U.S. will see normal temperatures. However, severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast in Florida from Orlando south. Similar anomalies are expected in a pocket on the border of Louisiana and Mississippi, and south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Moderately warmer than normal conditions are forecast for western Texas into eastern New Mexico, southwestern Arizona, Idaho and western Montana, the coastal Pacific Northwest, and pockets of the Eastern Seaboard including Maine, Rhode Island, and North and South Carolina. Cooler than normal pockets are forecast for northeastern Arizona into northwestern New Mexico, and northwestern Colorado. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in southern Alaska and in the north near Barrow.

Western Canada will see warmer than normal temperatures, with anomalies reaching extreme to exceptional intensity in northern British Columbia into southern Yukon. Eastern Manitoba and western Ontario will be moderately warmer than the norm. Warm anomalies will be more intense in northernmost Quebec and eastern Nunavut.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released August 2, 2019 which includes forecasts for August 2019 through April 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued July 25 through July 31, 2019.

Technical details:

  • Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:

    • Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.

    • Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.

    • Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).

  • The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.

  • Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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