Exceptional deficits will cover much of Ukraine’s western half; many areas of Finland, Estonia and Latvia; and Norway’s northern coast. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for southern and northernmost Sweden, eastern Belgium, eastern Germany, northern Austria, Czech Republic, the breadth of Poland, southern Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and many regions in the Balkan Peninsula. Deficits are also expected in southern European Russia, pockets of Italy, central France, and along the southern Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula.
Areas of surplus include northern European Russia; Ireland, the U.K., and Brittany, France; Spain’s north coast, its southeast coast, and the Barcelona area; northern Jutland (Denmark); large pockets of northern Sweden; and around Oslo, Norway. Surpluses will be widespread and exceptional in northern European Russia and somewhat less intense in England, Wales, and Brittany.
FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.
The forecast through April indicates that surpluses will shrink in Western Europe and around the Adriatic Sea but increase in northern European Russia though the extent of exceptional surplus will diminish. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland and the U.K.; Brittany, France and northern France; northeastern Spain and pockets along its Mediterranean Coast; Switzerland and western Austria; central Slovakia; northern Poland; southern Norway; and large pockets of northern Sweden. Surpluses will be exceptional in northern European Russia, Norway northwest of Oslo, and Murcia, Spain.
Intense deficits are forecast for many regions of Finland, the Baltics, Norway’s northern coast, and pockets of Sweden. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Belgium, central France, eastern Germany, northern Austria, Czech Republic, central Poland, the islands of Denmark, southern Belarus, central and western Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, northern and eastern Bulgaria and the central Balkans. Deficits will be intense in many pockets but will be particularly widespread in central Ukraine, Moldova, and Bulgaria. Italy, too, can expect pockets of exceptional deficit.
From May through July, exceptional deficits will increase in Finland and the Baltics; will emerge in southern Belarus and southern European Russia; and will shrink in central Ukraine but increase across a wide block in the northwest. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in pockets throughout Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans, with more intense anomalies across the border of Germany and Czech Republic and in southern Italy. Relatively normal water conditions are forecast for Western Europe with some lingering moderate surpluses in England, Ireland, and small pockets of Mediterranean Spain. Surpluses in northern European Russia will shrink but will remain widespread in Karelia and the Kola Peninsula.
The forecast for the remaining months – August through October – indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade, persisting from Finland through the Baltics and Eastern Europe into southern European Russia, with severe deficits on the Dnieper River through Ukraine. Surpluses are forecast for Karelia and the Kola Peninsula in Russia.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
IMPACTS
January 2020 broke records in Ukraine as the warmest and driest January officially observed. Experts see a trending influence of warm air masses from Africa and Asia, not just the Atlantic, contributing to a change. November 2019 through January 2020 rainfall was only 74 mm compared to the multi-year rainfall norm of 132 mm for that period. Drought contributed to a 30 percent drop in 2019 grape production from the prior year, with the 2019 volume of 327,000 tons the lowest in history. As a consequence, wine production in the country plummeted to its lowest level.
The German Weather Service is warning that after two dry years soil moisture is severely depleted, threatening the nation’s forests and agriculture. The situation is particularly bad in the eastern half of the country where precipitation in 2018 and 2018 was only two-thirds of normal.
Storm Gloria left 14 dead in Spain, flooding beach resorts, cutting power, blocking roads, and inundating 30sq km (12sq miles) of rice plants in the Ebro Delta with seawater.
In early February two major storm systems wreaked havoc in the United Kingdom and Northern Europe, disrupting travel and triggering floods. Storm Ciara struck first followed by Storm Dennis. Amsterdam’s airport cancelled 240 flights, 180 flights were cancelled in Frankfurt, and rail travel was interrupted in Britain. In York, the River Ouse rose 3.5 m (11.5 feet) higher than normal. Storm Dennis killed three people in Britain, flooding many communities, and the River Wye in central England reached its highest level ever recorded. Power outages and flooding were reported in southern Sweden, 100 people were evacuated in Denmark, and a cargo ship that had been abandoned in 2018 washed up on the Irish coast.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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