Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2023

6 June 2023

OVERVIEW

Our June 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience significantly warmer temperatures than normal, with exceptional anomalies occurring in many areas, including Canada, Mexico, Central America, South America, Africa, Russia, and Southeast Asia.

The precipitation forecast for June 2023 exhibits more uncertainty than usual in some regions (marked with hashed areas). However, there will likely be pockets of intense precipitation anomalies in regions such as the western United States, central Africa, Central America, and the Middle East.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

The temperature forecast indicates exceptionally higher than normal temperatures in many regions of the world, including Canada, Mexico, Central America, South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Smaller pockets of cooler temperatures are anticipated in northwest Mexico, the U.S., and Europe.

The United States can expect mostly normal conditions to mild anomalies across the area, with some exceptions.

The following areas are expected to endure severe to exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures:

Southwestern Mississippi, near the Homochitto National Forest.
Southern Florida, throughout much of the Everglades.
Northern Michigan, across the state’s Upper Peninsula.
North-central Alaska, throughout central areas of the North Slope Borough.

Mild to moderately cooler temperatures are expected in:

Throughout much of Arizona and New Mexico.
Wyoming, Nebraska, and Colorado.

The forecast for Canada indicates widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity across most of the continent.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are expected in the following provinces:

Nunavut, throughout much of the Kivalliq Region.
Quebec, in areas along the Hudson Bay coast, near the village of Kuujjuarapik.
Throughout Northwestern Territories, in the areas surrounding Great Slave Lake, western regions of Fort Smith, and near the Nahanni National Park Reserve of Canada.
Northern Alberta, in pockets across MacKenzie County.
Yukon, near the First Nation Of Nacho Nyak Dun.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean are expected to experience widespread exceptional anomalies, mostly of hotter than normal temperatures.

Warm temperatures are expected in the following areas:

Central and southern Mexico, with exceptional deficits appearing near the state of Hidalgo and in coastal regions bordering the North Pacific Ocean, spreading further south into the states of Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Guatemala, with severely warmer temperatures appearing throughout the country, and exceptional temperatures near the Reserva de Biosfera Maya.
Honduras and El Salvador, throughout both countries.
Nicaragua, appearing throughout most of the country.
Throughout both Costa Rica and Panama.
Throughout much of the Caribbean, with moderate to severe warm anomalies appearing in Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.

Exceptionally cool temperatures are expected in:

Northwestern Mexico, in areas throughout the states of Sonora and Chihuahua.
Southern Baja California Sur, throughout the municipality of La Paz.

South America can also expect widespread, intense warm temperatures throughout the continent.

Countries that can expect exceptionally warm anomalies include:

Brazil, throughout much of the country.
Colombia, with the most intense temperatures appearing in the Choco, Cauca, and Narino departments, spreading further east through the Santander department into much of the Guainia and Vichada departments.
Southern Venezuela, throughout the states of Amazonas and Bolivar.
Throughout the Guianas, throughout northern Guyana and across the entirety of Suriname and French Guiana.
Northwestern Ecuador, throughout the Esmerelda and Pichincha provinces.
Peru, along much of the country’s western coast, as well as in pockets throughout the Ucayali, Oxapampa, and La Convención provinces.
Bolivia, throughout much of the Potosi Department.
Northern Chile, in the Atacama Desert.

Severely warmer than normal anomalies are expected in:

Northern Colombia, throughout the departments of La Guajira, Cesar, and North Sandader, as well as appearing further south in the Caqueta department.
Northern Peru, appearing in pockets in the Maynas province and the Echarate District.
Western Venezuela, throughout the state of Barinas. Similarly intense anomalies are expected in areas north of the Parque Nacional Canaima.
Southern Guyana, in the Upper Takutu-Upper Essequibo region and across the country’s border into the state of Roraima in northern Brazil.
West-central Argentina, in the province of Neuquen. These anomalies continue across the country’s border, moving into central Chile, near the city of Temuco.

In Europe, temperature anomalies are expected to be relatively mild but widespread.

Warm anomalies, mostly of moderate to severe intensity, are expected in:

Northeastern France, in central areas of the Grand Est region.
Western coastal regions of Ireland.
Northern coastal regions of Spain.

Moderate to extreme cool anomalies are expected in the following areas:

Central and northern Norway, throughout the Nordland region and into western areas of Troms og Finnmark.
Sweden, in western regions of Norrbotten County along the shared border of Norway.

Africa is expected to experience widespread, numerous instances of exceptionally warmer than normal anomalies.

Exceptionally warm anomalies are expected in the following areas:

Southwestern Mauritania, in the Brakna region, crossing into Senegal’s Linguère Department and into the country’s western coastal regions.
Central to southern Sierra Leone into much of Liberia.
Southern Algeria, in southern areas of the Tamanrasset Province.
Central to southern Libya, in the Kufra and Murzuq districts.
Northeastern Niger, across the Agadez Region.
Northern Chad, throughout much of the Tibesti region.
Across most of Egypt.
Northern to central Sudan, throughout the country’s North and Red Sea states.
Ethiopia, in pockets around the Oromia Region.
Southwestern Kenya, near Nyamira County, and further north near Lake Turkana.
Somalia, in isolated areas near the cities of Mogadishu and the town of Jariiban.
Central to south Nigeria, in areas south of the Benue river.
Cameroon, throughout the area’s East region.
West-central Democratic Republic of Congo, near the province of Kasai.
Southwestern Angola, through much of the Cuando Cubango province.
Northeastern Namibia, throughout the regions of Otjozondjupa, Omusati, and Kavango.
Botswana, throughout the majority of the country, excluding western regions of the Kgalagadi South region.
South Africa, throughout much of the country’s North West and Limpopo provinces.
Zimbabwe, throughout the majority of the country's central and southern areas.
Mozambique, in western regions of the Gaza province.
Madagascar, in much of the Sofia and Analanjirofo regions.

Moderately cooler temperatures are expected in:

Pockets of the Democratic Republic of Congo, near the town of Manono and the province of Tshopo.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are expected in the following regions of the Middle East:

Central to southern Saudi Arabia, appearing in pockets throughout the Al Ahsa and Al Udeid regions, as well as near the Dawasir Valley.
Yemen, across the country, appearing near southern coastal regions, the city of Sana'a, and across the Hadhramaut Governorate.
Oman, across the north and south Al Batinah governorates and along the Gulf of Oman.
Southwestern Jordan, in the Aqaba Governorate.
Israel, throughout most of the country.
Southeastern Iraq, in central areas of the Al-Zubair district.
Iran, appearing in pockets throughout the Qom, Isfahan, and Yadz provinces.

The forecast for Central Asia and Russia can expect widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity throughout the regions.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are expected in the following areas:

Northwest Russia, throughout the island of Novaya Zemlya Rayon. Similarly intense anomalies are expected in south-central areas of the Yamalsky District and regions along the coast of the Kara Sea.
Central Russia, widespread throughout southern regions of the Krasnoyarsk Krai federal subject.
Eastern Russia, Northern coastal regions of the Sakha Republic, along the East Siberian Sea.
Southwestern Kazakhstan, in the Kyzylorda Province.
Central Uzbekistan, in eastern regions of the Republic of Karakalpakstan.
West-central to central Turkmenistan, in western areas of the Daşoguz Region.

The forecast for South Asia indicates exceptionally warm anomalies to be widespread throughout the region.

Exceptionally warm anomalies are expected in the following areas:

Central to eastern India, throughout the states of Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharand, and West Bengal.
Throughout Bangladesh and into the eastern states of India, including Meghalaya, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh.
Eastern Nepal, near the city of Kathmandu.

The following areas can expect notably cooler than normal temperatures:

Northern Pakistan, with moderate to severe anomalies appearing near the city of Lahore.

Exceptionally warm anomalies are expected to be widespread throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific, particularly within the following areas:

Myanmar, widespread throughout the country.
Much of Indonesia, throughout the islands of Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and throughout the Banda Arc islands.
Northern Thailand, near the city of Chaing Mai. Similarly intense deficits appear further in the Yala and Narathiwat provinces.
Throughout much of peninsular Malaysia, as well as the state of Sarawak.
Singapore, throughout the country.
Northern Laos, in the Xaisomboun province and the Nam Ha National Bio-Diversity Conservation Area.
Throughout most of the islands of the Philippines.
Papua, across the Nabire, Mamberamo Raya, Waropen, Jayapura, and Keerom regencies.
Papua New Guinea, across all northern coastal regions of the country. Similarly intense warm anomalies are expected throughout the Bismarck Archipelago and near the Louisiade Archipelago.

The forecast for East Asia indicates that most of the region can expect mild to moderate anomalies, with some appearances of greater intensity scattered throughout.

The following areas can anticipate extreme to exceptionally warm anomalies:

In pockets throughout southern China, in central areas of the Guangxi province, western regions of the Guangdong province, and northern parts of the Fujian province.
Central China, with exceptional warm anomalies throughout western portions of the Yunnan province, which move further north, lessening in intensity into severe anomalies in western Sichuan.
Northwestern China, in pockets throughout the province of Xinjiang.
Northern South Korea, with severe anomalies appearing in the Gangwon-do province.

Cooler than normal temperatures, mostly mild to moderate, are expected in:

Western China, in the western prefecture of Ngari in Tibet.

Australia and New Zealand can expect mostly normal conditions with some notable anomalies appearing throughout the eastern side of the continent, as well as in nearby, non-contiguous areas.

Severely warm anomalies are expected in the following regions:

Southeastern Australia, in eastern regions of the provinces of Victoria and southeastern New South Wales. Similarly intense anomalies continue further north near the city of Brisbane.
Northernmost Queensland, throughout coastal regions in the Shire of Cook.
Tasmania, throughout much of the country.
New Zealand, throughout the entirety of the South Island.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

Though the precipitation forecast for June 2023 exhibits more uncertainty than usual in some regions, there will likely be pockets of intense precipitation anomalies in regions such as the western United States, central Africa, Central America, and the Middle East.

The forecast for the United States anticipates extreme to exceptional precipitation surpluses in:

Southeast California, throughout much of San Bernardino County and surrounding areas.
Nevada, spanning much of the central to southern regions of the state.
Central regions of Utah.
Idaho, with the highest intensity anomalies appearing near the Salmon Mountains.
Western Montana, in areas nearby the Helena-Lewis and Clark National Forest.
Colorado, throughout much of the state, spreading further into much of Wyoming and Kansas.
Western Texas, near the city of Midland.

The forecast for Canada anticipates moderate to severe precipitation deficits in the following areas:

Central Quebec, in regions along the coast of the Hudson Bay, as well as throughout northern areas of the Jamésie territory.

Moderate to severe surplus is expected in:

Far northern Nunavut, throughout Ellesmere Island.

In Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur in:

Southern Mexico, throughout the states of Guerrero, Tabasco, and throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.
Central Guatemala, in areas west of Lake Izabal.
Throughout the majority of northern Belize.

Northern countries in South America can expect pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit, including:

Eastern Venezuela, throughout central regions of the state of Bolivar.
North-central Colombia, near the Parque Nacional Natural El Cocuy.
Ecuador, throughout the Sangay National Park and heading further south into areas of the Condorcanqui Province of Peru.
The Guianas, throughout central Guyana and Suriname.
Northern Brazil, throughout the state of Roraima.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Areas along the western coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador.

Europe, though less certain this month, anticipates mild deficits in the following countries:

Denmark, widespread throughout the western and central regions of the country.
Southern Norway, near the Sauda Municipality.

Surplus is expected in the following regions:

Western to central Spain, within the Salamanca and Seville provinces.
Northern and central Italy, near the province of Belluno and the city of Rome.
Eastern Bosnia, crossing the border into southern and southwestern Serbia.
Kosovo, throughout much of the country, into North Macedonia.

Africa can expect extreme to exceptional precipitation surpluses in the following areas:

Northern Chad, within the Fada and Borkou regions.
Southern coastal regions of Nigeria.
Gabon, throughout much of the areas’ central and eastern regions. Anomalies of similar intensity are expected to continue further south into southern regions of the Republic of Congo.
Central Democratic Republic of Congo, within the Opala region.
Southern Somalia, throughout the Lower Juba region.
South-central Tanzania, throughout areas near Lake Rukwa.
Additionally, some areas can expect deficits of varying intensity, including:
Ethiopia, appearing near the Gambella National Park, continuing southeast to areas near the city of Arba Minch.

in the Middle East, the forecast anticipates severe to extreme surpluses in the following areas:

Central Iran, in much of the Isfahan Province.
Central Syria, in central areas of the Homs Governorate, as well as along the country’s northern border.
Western Saudi Arabia, near the city of Mecca.
Central Turkey, appearing in a wave throughout the country and intensifying near the Diyarbakır Province.

Though less accurate than usual this month, Central Asia and Russia can expect mild to moderate surplus in:

Northwest Russia, in south-central areas of the Zapolyarny District.

The forecast anticipates South Asia to endure widespread anomalies, mostly of mild to moderate intensity, in the following areas:

Northern Pakistan, with moderate surplus spreading throughout much of the province of Punjab.
Northern India, with mild to moderate surplus spreading into the states of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.

The forecast predicts moderate deficits throughout the region, including:

East-central India, throughout the state of Chhattisgarh. Western coastal regions bordering the Arabian Sea can expect similarly intense deficits.
Nepal, throughout much of the country, with extreme deficits appearing near the city of Kathmandu.
Bangladesh, throughout much of the country. Similarly intense deficits continue further east into the Indian states of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

Much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific is expected to experience normal conditions, with some anomalies appearing in the following regions:

Southern Vietnam, with extreme to exceptional deficits appearing near the city of Nha Trang.
The Indonesian island of Sumatra, with moderate deficits appearing along the country’s southern coast, as well as near the Bangka Belitung Islands.
The Indonesian island of Java, with moderate deficits appearing throughout the island’s western regions.
Myanmar, with moderate surplus appearing throughout and near the state of Kayah.
Papua New Guinea, with mild to moderate surplus appearing in many of the country’s central regions.

Though less certain than normal, the forecast for East Asia anticipates mild to moderate surplus in the following regions:

Western China, appearing throughout the Ngari Prefecture of western Tibet, and moving further east into Gêrzê County, within the same prefecture.

The forecast for Australia and New Zealand anticipates mild deficits to occur in the following areas:

Western and southwestern Australia, beginning in regions near the city of Perth and moving further east into central South Australia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 2, 2023 which includes forecasts for June 2023 through February 2024 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2023.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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