East Asia: Surplus persists in W, central China

30 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February anticipates pockets of intense surplus throughout southwestern and northeastern provinces, with some southern and central areas experiencing intense deficits.

Exceptional surplus is expected in the following areas:

Southwestern to northeast China, appearing in pockets which span across much of the southwestern border of Tibet into areas along the Shandong Peninsula, as well as western regions of the Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces.
Northwestern China, along the country’s border in Xinjiang.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur in:

Western Inner Mongolia, with exceptional deficits appearing in the Alxa Right Banner.
Southern China, with exceptional deficits throughout western regions of the Yunnan province, into southwestern areas of the Sichuan province.
South Korea, with mostly extreme deficits occurring in central areas of the country.
Central and southern Taiwan, of exceptional intensity.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 anticipates intense surplus to spread from southwestern Tibet into northeastern provinces of China, including Shanxi and western Heilongjiang. Northwestern Xinjiang is expected to experience similarly intense surplus, with the province’s central areas forecast to observe isolated areas of exceptional deficits. Further south, western regions of Yunnan should anticipate intense deficits. Eastern countries such as South Korea and Taiwan are predicted to endure extreme deficits, throughout most areas of both countries.

From September through November 2023, anomalies across the country are expected to further lessen in intensity, with southeastern to central Tibet and northwestern Xinjiang experiencing severe to exceptional surplus. Central Xinjiang can anticipate a mixture of extreme to exceptional transitional conditions and deficits. Deficits in Taiwan and South Korea are expected to lessen into mostly normal conditions.

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – expects normal conditions and mild anomalies to continue, with some exceptions in northwestern China. Southwestern to northeastern Tibet and northwestern Xinjiang can anticipate a belt of moderate to exceptional surplus, while central Xinjiang is expected to endure exceptional deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Residents of the Yunnan Province have been working together to combat the region’s persisting drought. Locals initiated several projects, including cultivation of over 3 million mu of drought-resistant irrigated farming areas, as well as improvements on drought response. Since these provincewide projects have finished, water supplies have been ample in urban and rural areas, and large-scale agricultural drought has been avoided. Due to these efforts, the impact of the drought is slightly lighter than that of the same period of five years. During the previous drought’s most intense periods, the average precipitation was more than 60% lower than precipitation levels in the same period of the previous year, 96% of the province experienced drought of varying intensity, and 75% experienced severe drought.

Heatwaves are forecast to scorch northern China during the last week of June, particularly in areas between the the Huaihe River, Yellow River, and the Fenhe-Weihe Plain. Areas including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Henan, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia will be at a medium level risk of dangerously high temperatures. Inner Mongolia’s meteorological observatory in its Autonomous Region issued a red alert on June 24th for high temperatures, which anticipated rises of up to above 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Coupled with a lack of sufficient rainfall, severe drought is prevalent in many areas of Inner Mongolia. As of June 24th, drought is present in an area of 602,200 square kilometers – nearly 60.6 percent of the region's total agriculture, forestry, and livestock tending areas.

Taiwan recently saw substantial rainfall, allowing the country’s Central Emergency Operations Center (CEOC) to lift water conservation alerts implemented in central and southern Taiwan to combat drought. Economics Minister and head of the CEOC Wang Mei-hua said that the Liyutan and Techi reservoirs in central Taiwan were currently over 70 percent of its capacity, replenishing the Taichung area’s water supply. As of May 1st, the reservoirs had been at 36 percent and 48 percent of capacity respectively, but intense rainfall pushed their reserves to over 60 percent of capacity by the beginning of June.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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