Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in North-central Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in North-central Australia

21 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates near-normal conditions in most areas of the country, with the exception of persisting surplus in north-central Australia. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are expected to emerge In New Zealand. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Eastern Northern Territory, in areas surrounding the town of Nicholson and through the locality of Ranken.

  • Western Queensland, throughout Selwyn Range and into areas near the Camooweal locality.  

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western Australia, in western coastal regions near the city of Geraldton.

  • South Australia, in southern coastal regions near Port Lincoln. 

  • Southern New Zealand, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the northern regions of the South Island, near Kahurangi National Park. 

  • Northern New Zealand, in most areas west of Lake Taupo.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 anticipates most surplus in western Queensland and eastern Northern Territory to shift into transitional conditions, with some surplus appearing in southern and central portions of the Yorke Peninsula. These transitional conditions continue further west into areas near the Dampier Peninsula. Nearby, regions near the town of Telfer can anticipate exceptional deficits to appear. In New Zealand, exceptional deficits are expected to arise in central regions of the country, near the Waimate District, with severe to extreme deficits appearing further north along the West Coast region, as well as western coastal areas of the North Island in the region of Taranaki. 

From December through February 2024, near-normal conditions are expected in nearly all regions of Australia, with the exception of areas east of the Simpson Desert in western Queensland forecast to observe moderate surplus. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – expects most areas to observe near-normal conditions, with some moderate surpluses appearing in northern Western Australia in areas south of Lake Argyle.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The heatwave in Australia is expected to continue, with record temperatures forecast for inland areas of South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria. In Sydney, temperatures have already reached over 93 degrees Fahrenheit – over 53 degrees higher than the average for September. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology anticipates that, as of September 18th, temperatures will potentially reach as high as 60 degrees Fahrenheit over the seasonal average. Additionally, drier and warmer than average conditions are expected throughout much of Australia, which can potentially be linked to the strengthening of an El Niño, bringing increased risk of wildfires and extreme drought. 

Experts stated that farmers in New Zealand’s Southland could potentially benefit from an El Niño summer. MetService meteorologist Peter Little said the El Niño conditions, which are predicted for this summer, meant drought conditions were ‘’less likely’’. The last three summers in New Zealand have had La Niña weather conditions, with prevailing northwesterlies bringing warm, wet weather down from the subtropics. Southland has had late droughts two years in a row, with dry conditions felt especially in coastal areas, Stewart Island and Fiordland.

Researchers at University of Melbourne have developed a computer model which reportedly can provide more accurate flooding predictions, and 1000 times faster than current flooding simulations. The new model reduces flood forecast times from hours or days of previous simulations to seconds. The model, titled the Low-Fidelity, Spatial Analysis and Gaussian Process Learning (LSG) model is detailed in a paper published in Nature Water. “Currently, our most advanced flood models can accurately simulate flood behavior, but they’re very slow and can’t be used during a flood event as it unfolds,” says the University of Melbourne’s Professor Rory Nathan. “This enables highly accurate modeling to be used in real-time during an emergency. It’s a game-changer.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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