South Asia: Deficits remain in Afghanistan, Pakistan, surpluses persist in India

South Asia: Deficits remain in Afghanistan, Pakistan, surpluses persist in India

28 May 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in January 2026 indicates that exceptional surpluses in India will mostly dissipate, transitioning to moderate to severe surpluses. Exceptional deficits will remain in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Pakistan, with the most intense anomalies occurring near the cities of Multan, Rahim, and Bahawalpur, as well as within the northwestern areas of its Balochistan province.

  • Afghanistan, with exceptional deficits appearing in the Helmand province near the city of Lashkar Gah, as well as near the Kamal Kahn Dam. 

  • Northern India, in isolated portions of the region of Ladakh.   

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • India, throughout most central and south-central regions of the country, including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2025 expects severe surpluses to emerge in eastern areas of India’s Andhra Pradesh state, as well as near the city of Surat, western Telangana, and much of Sri Lanka. Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in west-central areas of Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, as well as regions in Afghanistan's Helmand province. These deficits are also anticipated in Bhutan, as well as in the Indian states of Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura. 

From August through October 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to spread through much of central and south-central India. Severe to extreme surpluses will appear in coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficits are anticipated in central to northern Afghanistan, near the city of Kandahar and the Bande Pitaw Wildlife Refuge. In India, the region of Ladakh can anticipate severe deficits, as well as northernmost areas of Pakistan. 

The forecast for the final months – November through January 2026 – anticipates that moderate to severe surpluses will spread further throughout central and southern India. Exceptional deficits may appear in regions along the eastern border of Pakistan and western border of India’s Rajasthan state. Severe deficits may continue in Ladakh.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On May 18, the city of Bengaluru experienced its heaviest rainfall of the year, which lasted almost 9 hours and led to widespread severe flooding. A severe rain alert was issued by the India Meteorological Department and some residents noted frequent cloudbursts. “Bengaluru has been witnessing cloud bursts of 15 to 20 cm for the past couple of days. Streets are heavily flooded, causing traffic snarls and many places. Weather watchers have advocated for work from home,” one local said.

Drought is intensifying the India–Pakistan conflict as tensions escalate over water rights. After the missile strikes on May 7th and the following retaliation, India also threatened to restrict the flow of the Indus River, which could violate the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty – an agreement which governs shared water resources between the two nations. The situation further exacerbates water shortages throughout the region. 

Pakistan recently reported that April 2025 was its second-hottest April in 65 years, with temperatures averaging 3.37 degrees Celsius above normal. Highs rose by over 4 degrees Celsius and precipitation dropped by 59%, with the highest recorded temperature being 49 degrees Celsius in Sindh. Experts warn that the extreme heat and dryness are worsening water shortages, damaging crops, and posing serious health risks. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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