Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Ertis River

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surpluses forecast in Ob & Yenisei River Basins

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water surpluses forecast in Ob & Yenisei River Basins

The forecast through March indicates intense water surpluses in the Ob and Yenisei River Basins in Russia. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the Ural River Watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border into Russia, and in the Upper Volga River Basin and parts of Trans Volga. Primarily moderate surpluses are expected along the Ertis (Irtysh), Esil, and Ile Rivers in Kazakhstan, and the Zarafshon River in eastern Uzbekistan. Severe deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west.

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, Russia

Widespread and exceptional water deficits observed in Russia in the prior three months are forecast to retreat April through June. However, drier than normal conditions will persist from the White Sea to the Lena River. Surpluses are forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, along the Middle Ob River, and between the Volga River and the Belaya River. Surpluses will continue to emerge in the many areas of Kazakhstan as well as in Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for western Uzbekistan and parts of Turkmenistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in northern Russia, surpluses in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in northern Russia, surpluses in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia, with exceptional water deficits reaching from the Upper Taz River past the Yenisei River to the Lower Tunguska. Surpluses are forecast between the Volga River in Samara Oblast and the Belaya River in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and in Kyrgyzstan. Moderate deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west. Severe deficits are forecast for south-central Uzbekistan and into northern Turkmenistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Arctic Russia, surpluses in Kyrgyzstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Arctic Russia, surpluses in Kyrgyzstan

Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Kazakhstan, down the middle of Kazakhstan through Karagandy Region, and in Kyrgyzstan. From May through July deficits will increase southwest of Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, exceptional surpluses will emerge between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers, and moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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