Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Tom River

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Volga River Basin, & from Ob to Tom River

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Volga River Basin, & from Ob to Tom River

Widespread exceptional water deficits in northern Russia observed in the prior three months are forecast to retreat May through July. However, drier than normal conditions will persist from the Yamal Peninsula to the Sea of Okhotsk. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin, the Irtysh, and between the Ob and the Tom Rivers. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and central Uzbekistan. Beyond July the forecast shows a similar geographic distribution of anomalies but with some changes in conditions.

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, Russia

Widespread and exceptional water deficits observed in Russia in the prior three months are forecast to retreat April through June. However, drier than normal conditions will persist from the White Sea to the Lena River. Surpluses are forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, along the Middle Ob River, and between the Volga River and the Belaya River. Surpluses will continue to emerge in the many areas of Kazakhstan as well as in Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for western Uzbekistan and parts of Turkmenistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Siberia, surpluses in Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Siberia, surpluses in Kazakhstan

Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea past the Central Siberian Plateau through August 2017, though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish somewhat. Both surpluses and deficits are forecast for the Ural River watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan, and surpluses are forecast for central and eastern Kazakhstan. Overall, moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses in Kyrgyzstan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in the Ural River Basin

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in the Ural River Basin

Drier than normal conditions will continue to dominate much of northern Russia from the White Sea to the Central Siberian Plateau through July, though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish considerably. The Ural River Basin in northwestern Kazakhstan will continue to experience exceptional surplus and surpluses are also forecast for central Kazakhstan. Overall, moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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