The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus north of Minsk, southern Sweden, and eastern Croatia. Deficits will moderate in Spain but intensify in central France, especially along the Loire and Dordogne Rivers. Surpluses are forecast for pockets of Switzerland and Austria, southern Umbria in central Italy, northwestern Sweden, and Murmansk, Russia.
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, extending into European Russia. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional, 40+ years return period, around the Baltic Sea and well into northern European Russia. Eastern Europe and the Balkans will be drier than normal.
The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.
Exceptional water surpluses will retreat but widespread surpluses will persist in European Russia and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Surpluses will emerge in southern Norway and northern Sweden. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, central Finland, and central Sweden. Deficits in southern France and the Mediterranean are expected to moderate but severe deficits will continue in Portugal, and deficits will emerge in Albania and eastern Greece. After April, much of Central and Eastern Europe will transition away from surplus to moderate deficit, joining southern Europe.
The forecast indicates a transition in April to water deficits across much of Europe, but until then widespread surpluses will persist in Northern, Central, Eastern Europe, and European Russia and are expected to be exceptional in Russia, northern Poland, northwestern Ireland, and along the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Deficits will continue to emerge in Southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula, but will retreat significantly in France, persisting only along the southern coast. Intense deficits will emerge in Crimea, and will persist in northern Finland and northern Norway.
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