Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Crete

Europe: Water deficits ahead for Central, Eastern, & Northern Europe

Europe: Water deficits ahead for Central, Eastern, & Northern Europe

The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.

Europe: Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe & the Balkans as deficits emerge

Europe: Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe & the Balkans as deficits emerge

Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe and the Balkans as deficits emerge. Deficits are also forecast for Northern Europe with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Intense surpluses are forecast for Hungary and for eastern Ukraine into Russia, with both deficits and surpluses in European Russia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula but retreat in France, with deficits emerging in Auvergne. Moderate surpluses will persist in Ireland, England, and Normandy.

Europe: Water deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, Latvia

Europe: Water deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, Latvia

Notable in the near-term forecast is the retreat of water surplus in Central Europe and a transition to moderate deficit. Deficits in Northern Europe are expected to persist and increase, with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will remain intense in Hungary, southern Romania, Moldova, and eastern Bulgaria, and will increase in Ukraine. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Ireland and the UK, and will spread on the Iberian Peninsula. After June, mild deficits are forecast for Central Europe, more intense deficits in Northern Europe, and surplus in the western Iberian Peninsula.

Europe: Water surplus to diminish overall, increase in France & the UK

Europe: Water surplus to diminish overall, increase in France & the UK

In the near-term through May, water surplus in Central and Eastern Europe and European Russia is expected to shrink and downgrade, though remain widespread. In France and the UK, however, surpluses will increase in extent. Exceptional deficits will continue to emerge in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and a pocket in central Sweden. A band of deficit conditions will persist across southern Italy, but deficits on the Iberian Peninsula will shrink and downgrade – with some surplus conditions emerging. After May, the forecast indicates a transition away from surplus to mild deficit in many areas.

Europe: Water deficits persist in Portugal; surpluses in Central, Eastern Europe

Europe: Water deficits persist in Portugal; surpluses in Central, Eastern Europe

Exceptional water surpluses will retreat but widespread surpluses will persist in European Russia and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Surpluses will emerge in southern Norway and northern Sweden. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, central Finland, and central Sweden. Deficits in southern France and the Mediterranean are expected to moderate but severe deficits will continue in Portugal, and deficits will emerge in Albania and eastern Greece. After April, much of Central and Eastern Europe will transition away from surplus to moderate deficit, joining southern Europe.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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