The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.
Water surpluses are forecast through August for northeastern France; northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain; and North Yorkshire, United Kingdom. Water deficits are forecast for Germany, Poland, western Ukraine, Finland, the Baltics, Mediterranean Spain, Corsica, the Peloponnese region of Greece, and Crete. Deficits are expected to persist in Finland and the Baltics. With the exception of deficits in Finland, both deficits and surpluses throughout Europe are forecast to diminish in severity after August.
Water deficits are forecast to persist in parts of Mediterranean Europe, especially southern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Greece, and Crete. Central and Eastern Europe will transition from surplus to deficits, with the exception of eastern Hungary, which will remain wet. Deficits are forecast for Northern Europe, including Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, and later on, Norway.
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