Europe
ISciences staff
Europe: Surplus continues in W Europe

The forecast anticipates that while surpluses in Continental Europe will dissipate, intense deficits will remain in pockets throughout much of western Europe. Southern Europe, especially coastal regions of Italy, Spain, and the Balkans, will experience exceptional deficits. 

Europe: Surplus continues in W Europe
Mexico & C. Amer. & Carib
ISciences staff
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and central Mexico, as well as in Central America. Transitional conditions are anticipated in southern Mexico and in pockets of Central America. Eastern portions of the Caribbean can expect surplus to arise. 

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits linger in NW, central Mexico
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia

Morelos

Mexico, Central America & the Caribbean: Water surplus to persist in Honduras & El Salvador

Mexico, Central America & the Caribbean: Water surplus to persist in Honduras & El Salvador

Exceptional water deficits in Cuba are forecast to retreat through December, and moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Tamaulipas, Mexico, and other pockets across the north. The extent of exceptional surpluses in Central America is expected to shrink, but surpluses remain in the forecast and may be especially intense in Honduras. After December moderate deficits will continue to emerge in northern Mexico with more severe deficits in Tamaulipas. Surpluses will persist in Central America but will begin to transition to deficits in El Salvador.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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