The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The forecast through July indicates that widespread water surpluses will nearly disappear in southeastern China but will persist in the south and will include exceptional anomalies. Taiwan will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Exceptional deficits will persist in western Inner Mongolia, and moderate to extreme deficits in Mongolia. Deficits are forecast between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Severe deficits are forecast for northern Japan.
The forecast through February indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficit from southern Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia to China’s western border, including areas of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Hebei, with deficits of somewhat lesser intensity reaching through Beijing and Shanxi. A vast block of intense surplus is expected from the Yangtze River through southeastern China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea.
Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.
The near-term forecast through November indicates intense surpluses in China’s Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces; along the Yellow River; in Shaanxi, southern Gansu, and Qinghai; and in Tibet. Surpluses are also forecast for southern China and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across much of Xinjiang. Deficits are also expected in the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Basin, South Korea, and southwestern Japan.
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