The forecast anticipates that while surpluses in Continental Europe will dissipate, intense deficits will remain in pockets throughout much of western Europe. Southern Europe, especially coastal regions of Italy, Spain, and the Balkans, will experience exceptional deficits.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and central Mexico, as well as in Central America. Transitional conditions are anticipated in southern Mexico and in pockets of Central America. Eastern portions of the Caribbean can expect surplus to arise.
The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will retreat in the Lower and Middle Yangtze Basin, transitioning to moderate deficits in the Lower Basin. Surpluses will increase in the Pearl River Basin and Southeast China. Deficits will emerge in eastern Mongolia, and Honshu and Hokkaido, Japan.
The forecast through December indicates intense water surpluses in Northeast China and surpluses of varying intensity from Tibet through the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses in China’s south and southeast will shrink and moderate. Deficits are forecast for Shandong, northern Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, Mongolia, and pockets of North Korea and Honshu, Japan.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water surpluses in southeastern China will shrink but remain widespread and intense in the Pearl River Basin with exceptional surpluses in Guangdong. Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Yellow (Huang He) River. Deficits will shrink in Henan and Hubei but will be intense. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in southern North Korea and across the border into South Korea, and in northern Japan.
Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.
Through the next several months, widespread water surpluses in the center of China will shrink and downgrade, and surpluses further east in Hubei, Henan, and Anhui will transition to mild deficit. In the south, moderate to severe surpluses will increase in Yunnan and western Guangxi. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Southeast China. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in Liaoning and Jilin in the northeast, and will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and Honshu, Japan.
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