Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Tierra del Fuego

South America: Water deficits in northeastern Argentina to downgrade but persist

South America: Water deficits in northeastern Argentina to downgrade but persist

The extent of exceptional deficit will diminish considerably over the next few months. However, pockets are forecast in Amapá, Amazonas, Acre, Maranhão, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo, Brazil; and, southeastern Venezuela, eastern Suriname, and French Guiana. Exceptional deficits in northeastern Argentina will downgrade to severe. Surpluses are forecast for northern Bolivia and eastern Paraguay. After June, moderate to severe deficits will continue to emerge across the northern bulk of the continent. Aforementioned deficits in Argentina will moderate.

South America: Much wetter than normal conditions forecast for Paraguay

South America: Much wetter than normal conditions forecast for Paraguay

A number of significant transitions are forecast for the next three months. Though exceptional water deficits will diminish across northern South America – transitioning to surplus in many northern nations and the northern Amazon Basin – deficits will intensify in eastern Brazil. Surpluses are forecast to emerge throughout Paraguay and into southern Brazil. Surpluses in Uruguay will transition to moderate deficit; Buenos Aires Province, Argentina will transition from surplus to near-normal. After March, water anomalies will moderate considerably across most of the continent. 

South America: Water deficits forecast to diminish considerably but persist in Brazil

South America: Water deficits forecast to diminish considerably but persist in Brazil

A significant retreat of exceptional deficits is forecast November through January, though deficits are forecast for much of Brazil’s northern half and along its southeast coast from São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro. Intense surpluses are forecast for central Colombia and Venezuela’s northeastern coast into Trinidad and Tobago. Moderate surpluses are forecast for northern Peru, northern Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. After February, a transition from deficit to moderate surplus is forecast for northern Amazonian Brazil.

South America: Intense water deficits to persist in Amapá & Roraima

South America: Intense water deficits to persist in Amapá & Roraima

A significant retreat of water deficits is forecast October through June, but through December exceptional deficits are expected in northernmost Brazil and into neighboring countries. Deficits are also forecast north of Lake Titicaca in Peru through La Paz and Cochabamba, Bolivia and into Argentina. Widespread, primarily moderate deficits are predicted in much of eastern Brazil, which may be more severe along the coast of the State of São Paulo. Surpluses are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and O’Higgins Lake in Patagonia. After December widespread moderate surpluses are forecast in the northern Amazon Basin

South America: Widespread water deficits in Brazil to persist but moderate

South America: Widespread water deficits in Brazil to persist but moderate

The near-term forecast indicates that widespread water deficits will persist, though moderate, in Brazil. However, intense deficits are forecast for: Brazil’s far north into Suriname and French Guiana; Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte; north-central and southern Venezuela; Cochabamba, Bolivia; northern Chile; and Tierra del Fuego. Surpluses will persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces, Argentina, and will emerge in Uruguay. After November deficits will retreat to eastern Brazil and surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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