The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
Though exceptional water surpluses will diminish through March, widespread and intense conditions will persist from Wisconsin through southern Minnesota, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central and eastern Texas. Surpluses along the Eastern Seaboard will also persist but moderate, while conditions in the Ohio River Valley normalize. In the western US, mild deficits are forecast punctuated by pockets of more intense anomalies, deficits as well as surpluses.
Exceptional water surplus conditions spanning the Pacific northwestern states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are expected to moderate in the near-term. Moderate surpluses are expected to develop along the central Gulf Coast and extend up the Mississippi Basin through the forecast period, settling over the northern Great Plains states by early 2018. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to develop over most of Alaska and moderate but persist throughout the forecast period.
The forecast for the next three months shows a significant reduction in the extent and severity of water deficits in the Ohio River Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South, and South Atlantic states. Parts of New England will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Surpluses are forecast in the northern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, Wisconsin, and Iowa, southern Missouri, southern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southern Colorado. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Idaho and surrounding states, and surpluses of generally lesser severity are expected in California’s northern two-thirds.
Severe to exceptional water deficits will continue to emerge in the South and South Atlantic states through September, with moderate deficits in the Northeast and in the Ohio River Valley, though deficits are expected to diminish somewhat in severity after June. Moderate deficits may emerge on the Arkansas and Colorado Rivers and moderate to severe deficits in northern Colorado from June through September. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist in Idaho through June, along with surpluses of varying intensity in the Pacific Northwest and California. After June the extent and severity of these surpluses is forecast to diminish.
Though the extent of exceptional deficits from Missouri to the Gulf and to the Atlantic is expected to recede from March through May, exceptional deficits will persist in Arkansas, Missouri, and western Illinois, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout much of the US east of the Mississippi. Surpluses are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, northern Nevada, Central California, western Nevada, and western Colorado and are expected to be exceptional in Idaho, parts of Central California, and along the Columbia River.
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