The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
Exceptional water surplus conditions spanning the Pacific northwestern states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are expected to moderate in the near-term. Moderate surpluses are expected to develop along the central Gulf Coast and extend up the Mississippi Basin through the forecast period, settling over the northern Great Plains states by early 2018. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to develop over most of Alaska and moderate but persist throughout the forecast period.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2016 through August 2017 include: the US South; Chile; Scandinavia; northern Africa, southern Somalia, and South Africa; the Middle East; southern India; Cambodia; and northern Russia. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Minnesota, Nicaragua, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Jiangsu and Shanghai, China This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 December 2016.
Water deficits may dominate the northern US from the Pacific Northwest eastward through Minnesota in the coming months, with surpluses in the Upper Mississippi. The forecast for California indicates a transition from deficits to surpluses by February. Surpluses may persist in the Central and Southern Plains and along Mississippi River tributaries. Extensive deficits are forecast March through May from the central Gulf Coast region northward through the Great Lakes region.
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