The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
Though exceptional water surpluses will diminish through March, widespread and intense conditions will persist from Wisconsin through southern Minnesota, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central and eastern Texas. Surpluses along the Eastern Seaboard will also persist but moderate, while conditions in the Ohio River Valley normalize. In the western US, mild deficits are forecast punctuated by pockets of more intense anomalies, deficits as well as surpluses.
Water surpluses will continue to emerge in southern Michigan and the Ohio River Valley. Exceptional surplus is expected on the Missouri River, western Montana, Idaho, and Washington. Intense deficits will continue in the West and Southwest. Moderate deficits are forecast for Oregon, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and most of Texas west of the Brazos River, with severe conditions in the Panhandle. Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will transition out of deficit, with moderate surplus emerging in Arkansas into surrounding states. Deficits in the Mid-Atlantic States will shrink.
The near-term forecast indicates exceptional deficits in the Lower Mississippi Valley and deficits nearly as intense through the South Atlantic States. Widespread moderate deficits are forecast from southern California through eastern Texas, with severe deficits near Houston. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Great Lakes, and intense surpluses are forecast for eastern Nebraska, central Minnesota, and southeastern Idaho. After February deficits in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the South Atlantic State will moderate, deficits will spread in California, and widespread surpluses will emerge in the Northwest and along the Columbia, Missouri, and Yellowstone Rivers.
After July the Northern Plains States should see a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits. Surpluses will persist in the Gulf region, diminish in the Great Lakes States, and transition to mild deficits in Virginia and North Carolina. After October moderate water surpluses will re-emerge in most of the Great Lakes States and in the Ohio River Valley, and pockets of surplus will continue to emerge in Idaho and surrounding states. Deficits in the southern states of the East Coast are expected to ratchet up slightly to moderate intensity and emerge in Florida.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2016 through November 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, Brazil, Finland, Denmark, Libya, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, northern Russia, Inner Mongolia, Thailand, western Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Central California, southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta in Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, and between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 March 2017.
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