The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast for Canada through March indicates water deficits in central Quebec, southern Ontario, southern Newfoundland, and northern reaches of western provinces. Surpluses are forecast across Ontario from the southern Kenora District to Quebec, Manitoba from Hudson Bay reaching southwest to Lake Winnipeg, northwestern Saskatchewan, and southern British Columbia.
The forecast through March indicates scattered moderate water deficits throughout much of Mexico with pockets of exceptional deficits in the south and the Yucatan Peninsula. Deficits will persist in Guatemala and emerge in eastern Jamaica. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Haiti.
Water anomaly patterns will remain much the same in the next six months with shifts in extent and intensity. Deficits are forecast through June in Scandinavia, the Baltics, Western Europe, and Central Europe. Surpluses will persist in Eastern Europe, western European Russia, and southern Spain’s Mediterranean coast.
Drier than normal water conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea past the Central Siberian Plateau through September. Surpluses will persist in the Ural River watershed in Kazakhstan, and also in the central, northeastern, and eastern parts of the country. Surpluses are forecast to persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan, and moderate deficits in Uzbekistan. An expanse of exceptional deficits between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia is forecast to transition to exceptional surplus from April through June.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist in Southeast China through March but with diminished severity, except in Shanghai and Jiangsu where exceptional surpluses may persist. Deficits will continue to emerge on the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional deficits intermingled with conditions of both deficit and surplus are expected across northern China from central Inner Mongolia west and north into Mongolia. After March Southeast China is forecast to transition to normal conditions and anomalies elsewhere in the country will generally diminish in severity.
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