The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
Recent severe water deficits across Mexico are expected to subside somewhat through August, shifting toward the south and bringing moderate deficit conditions to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. These conditions are forecast to persist into early 2018. Surplus conditions in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica should subside and moderate by the final forecast period. Exceptional surplus conditions in central Cuba and Haiti are forecast to persist but moderate slightly by early 2018.
Though water deficits are forecast for Mexico over the next six months, they are expected to be primarily moderate, a significant improvement over the prior three months. Through July deficits are forecast in northwestern Mexico; scattered down the Pacific coast and central Mexico; in Yucatan, Tabasco, and Chiapas; and southern Guatemala. After July deficits will continue to emerge in Baja California, Mexico’s southern states, and northern Central America. Some modest surpluses are forecast to emerge in the north along the border of Sonora and Chihuahua.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast in Mexico from March through May in Nayarit, Michoacán, and southern Puebla into northern Oaxaca. Deficits are also forecast for the Yucatán Peninsula, the Baja Peninsula, northern Mexico, and Guatemala. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. After May the extent and severity of deficits in Mexico will decrease but moderate deficits are forecast to persist in the south and emerge in Central America.
The March 2017 Outlook indicates drier than normal conditions in southern California and eastern Brazil, and wetter than normal conditions in Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay, and Namibia and neighboring African nations. The forecast for many parts of the world is for much warmer than normal conditions including: Europe, Russia, Yemen, Queensland (Australia), Madagascar, Brazil, Cuba, and southwestern Mexico.
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