East Asia: Widespread water surpluses forecast south of Yangtze River
27 November 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through July 2019 indicates widespread intense surpluses for Northeast China in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and northern Inner Mongolia; along the Ordos Loop and Upper Reaches of the Yellow River; in Qinghai and Sichuan; and in Tibet. Surpluses of somewhat lesser intensity are forecast for the Pearl River watershed in the south.
Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in a block encompassing parts of Shanxi, Henan, Hubei and eastern Sichuan. Severe deficits are forecast for western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang along with conditions of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur.
In Japan, some surpluses are forecast for southern Honshu and Kyushu and in western Hokkaido; deficits are expected around Fukushima. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. In Mongolia, moderate surpluses are forecast along rivers in the north, and pockets of deficit scattered across the south.
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.
In the November through January forecast widespread surpluses are expected south of the Yangtze River and through much of the Pearl River watershed. Widespread, intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and in western Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet. Widespread deficits are forecast north of the Yangtze in Hubei, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi, and Hebei. Deficits will be extreme to exceptional in Hebei. Intense deficits are also forecast in western Liaoning, and moderate deficits on the Shandong Peninsula. Deficits are expected to increase and intensify across southern Mongolia and from western Inner Mongolia, China through Xinjiang with conditions of both deficit and surplus in areas of transition.
On the Korean Peninsula, moderate surpluses are forecast in the south and moderate deficits in the north. Some moderate surpluses are also forecast for pockets of southern Japan, and moderate deficits in Fukushima.
From February through April, deficits will increase and intensify in southern Mongolia and from central Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, China, forming a vast stretch of deficits reaching severe to exceptional intensity. Deficits will also increase from eastern Sichuan in a broad, diagonal path northeast to the Bohai Sea, with extreme deficits at the intersection of Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, and Hubei. Widespread primarily moderate surpluses will persist from the Yangtze River south. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and in Qinghai, western Sichuan, and Tibet. Near-normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. In Japan, some moderate deficits are forecast for southern Honshu, but deficits in the north will increase and intensify.
The forecast for the final three months – May through July – indicates that surpluses in China will downgrade overall, with nearly normal conditions returning to the Northeast. Deficits will also downgrade overall but exceptional deficits are forecast for a large block of western Inner Mongolia. Deficits are expected to increase in Japan.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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