The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water surpluses in southeastern China will shrink but remain widespread and intense in the Pearl River Basin with exceptional surpluses in Guangdong. Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Yellow (Huang He) River. Deficits will shrink in Henan and Hubei but will be intense. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in southern North Korea and across the border into South Korea, and in northern Japan.
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The forecast through May indicates the emergence of a vast stretch of extreme to exceptional water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Widespread surpluses will downgrade but persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches. Moderate deficits will emerge in Hainan and conditions in Taiwan will transition to near-normal. Intense deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and will increase in much of Japan.
The forecast through April indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and into Inner Mongolia, China. Moderate surpluses will emerge on the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River. Widespread surpluses will persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches, reaching into Guangxi. Surpluses will be exceptional in Shanghai and Jiangsu. Deficits are forecast for North Korea and northern Honshu, Japan. Some surpluses are forecast for South Korea and Kyushu, Japan.
The forecast through January indicates widespread surpluses south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and western Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet. Deficits are forecast for Hubei, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi, and Hebei. Deficits are expected to increase and intensify across southern Mongolia and from western Inner Mongolia, China through Xinjiang with conditions of both deficit and surplus in areas of transition. On the Korean Peninsula, moderate surpluses are forecast in the south and moderate deficits in the north.
Through September, exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, as well as in Southeast China and Taiwan. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Southeast with some pockets of exceptional deficit lingering in Hunan. Widespread surpluses will diminish overall, but surpluses of varying severity will persist in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, the Han River Basin, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, and western Tibet.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.
The extent of exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Moderate to severe deficits will increase in Northeast China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for much of the Yellow River. Exceptional surpluses in eastern Qinghai will begin to moderate, and surpluses in the Yangtze River Basin will diminish and downgrade. Though exceptional deficits will shrink in Southeast China, intense deficits are forecast. Deficits will downgrade in North Korea and moderate surpluses will expand in South Korea.
The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably. Deficits will increase in Northeast China; downgrade to mild in Shandong; and continue to emerge in the Southeast. Surpluses in the Yangtze Basin will diminish considerably, though exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Han River Basin. Hainan will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, as will Guangxi. Moderate deficit is forecast for North Korea. After June, water anomalies in China and Mongolia will downgrade overall.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Widespread intense deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Taiwan. Widespread intense surpluses are forecast for a vast stretch of the Upper and Middle Yangtze River, with exceptional surpluses in the Han River watershed. Aforementioned deficits may persist through March and surpluses may persist longer. Severe surpluses will continue to emerge along the Middle and Lower Yellow River through December. Surpluses in the western Pearl River watershed and around the Gulf of Tonkin are forecast to diminish slowly through March. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in eastern Qinghai while intense deficits are forecast in the west.