South America: Water surpluses ahead for Paraguay
28 November 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2019 indicates deficits across the northern bulk of the continent with large pockets of exceptional intensity in Amapá, Pará, Amazonas, and Mato Grosso, Brazil. Deficits of generally lesser intensity are forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors.
Intense deficits are expected in southern coastal Peru leading through northern Chile to Santiago, and along a path in south-central Bolivia beginning near Cochabamba.
Areas of surplus include: central and eastern Paraguay and nearby regions of Argentina and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; northeastern Bolivia; northeastern Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil; Uruguay; Buenos Aires and Neuquén Provinces in Argentina; and Patagonia surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake and along Río Santa Cruz.
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
The extent of exceptional deficits in the region will diminish considerably over the next several months. Through January, deficits of varying intensity are forecast for northwestern Brazil and its neighbors to the north and west. Deficits are expected to be extreme to exceptional in Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil; southern Venezuela; southwestern Colombia; and a pocket surrounding Quito, Ecuador. Deficits will downgrade somewhat but remain intense in a path from southern Peru through the Atacama Desert and past Santiago, Chile, with some areas exhibiting conditions of both deficit and surplus. A path of moderate to severe deficits is forecast in Bolivia from Cochabamba past the southern border. Deficits of similar intensity are expected in central Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Intense surpluses are forecast in central and eastern Paraguay, and surpluses of slightly lesser intensity will reach across the borders into Argentina and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Surpluses are also expected in northern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and pockets of Tocantins and Piauí; northern Bolivia; along the Culaba River in northeastern Argentina; Neuquén Province, Argentina; and Patagonia surrounding O’Higgins/San Martín Lake and along Río Santa Cruz.
From February through April, deficits will moderate across much of the northern part of the continent. Severe to exceptional deficits remain in the forecast for Chile’s northern half, and moderate to severe deficits in coastal and southern Peru. Surpluses will downgrade slightly in Paraguay, shrink in Bolivia and Brazil, persist in aforementioned areas of Patagonia, and emerge in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina.
In the final quarter – May through July – deficits will increase and intensify in Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, Colombia, Peru, and northern Chile. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Buenos Aires Province.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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