The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northwestern Brazil will downgrade considerably. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname, French Guiana, and many regions of Brazil including Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, and São Paulo State. Intense deficits will emerge tracing the Andes Mountains through Peru and into Chile. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Paraguay and in northern Argentina.
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The forecast through April indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink. Deficits are forecast for many other parts of Brazil, including intense deficits in Maranhão, eastern Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and along many rivers. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
Through January, water deficits of varying intensity are forecast across northwestern South America and will be extreme to exceptional in Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil; southern Venezuela; southwestern Colombia; and a pocket surrounding Quito, Ecuador. Other areas of deficit include: from southern Peru past Santiago, Chile; from Cochabamba, Bolivia past the southern border; and central Mato Grosso, Brazil. Areas of surplus include: eastern Paraguay and across the borders into Argentina and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; and northern Bolivia.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably in Brazil, but intense deficits are expected across the north and moderate deficits in much of the rest of the country. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and in Peru, southern Bolivia, and Chile, where conditions may be exceptional. Surpluses will moderate in central Colombia; downgrade slightly in Huánuco, Peru; and shrink somewhat in Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.
Exceptional deficits will diminish in South America over the next several months but large pockets of intense deficit are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits are also expected to be intense in: northern and southeastern Venezuela; western Ecuador; western Peru; most of Chile, especially the Atacama Desert and Bío Bío; and, Río Chubut in Patagonian Argentina. Surpluses will downgrade in central and eastern Colombia, but will be severe.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela surrounding Caracas; western Ecuador; a path from east of Lima, Peru through the Atacama Desert in Chile; and, along the Río Paraguay. Surpluses are forecast for Peru’s Huánuco Region; central and eastern Colombia into Apure, Venezuela; southeastern Peru into central Bolivia; and, the eastern Argentine Pampas.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2018 through March 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 July 2018.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months, but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Intense deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela east of Lake Maracaibo and near the border with Guyana; southern Bolivia; and along a path beginning south of Lima, Peru, through northern Chile. Deficits in Argentina will moderate and surpluses will emerge in northern Buenos Aires Province.