Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook November 2018

2 November 2018

OVERVIEW
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, extending into European Russia. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional, 40+ years return period, around the Baltic Sea and well into northern European Russia. Eastern Europe and the Balkans will be drier than normal.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
While much of Central and Eastern Europe will be somewhat drier than normal, reaching into southern European Russia as well, anomalies are expected to be severe to extreme in parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Dry anomalies are also forecast along Turkey’s northern shore and at the eastern end of the Black Sea in Georgia.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In the Middle East, wetter than normal conditions are forecast for Iraq, eastern Syria, central Saudi Arabia, and western Iran. Anomalies are expected to reach severe intensity.

The precipitation forecast for Africa indicates relatively normal conditions with some pockets of anomalies. Guinea, Sierra Leone, and western Madagascar will be somewhat drier than normal, as will pockets of Kenya. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast for northern Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, western South Sudan, and northeastern Sudan. Conditions may be extreme in Sudan.

Fairly intense wet anomalies are forecast for western China and into northernmost Pakistan and India, while conditions in eastern Kazakhstan will be moderately wetter than normal, as will the eastern reaches of the Central Siberian Plateau in Russia. Moderate wet anomalies are also forecast for north-central China, the Lower and Middle Yangtze Basin, and coastal Southeast China.

In Southeast Asia and the Philippines some scattered, moderate dry anomalies are forecast. The southern half of the state of Western Australia is expected to be wetter than normal with anomalies reaching extreme intensity.

In the US, the forecast indicates moderate wet anomalies in a band from the northern Ohio River Valley leading west past the Mississippi. In the Canadian West, British Columbia is expected to be wetter than normal with anomalies ranging from moderate to extreme.

Mexico can expect relatively normal conditions, while moderate to extreme dry anomalies are forecast for Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In South America, Paraguay will be wetter than normal, with pockets of moderate wet anomalies radiating well into south-central Brazil and eastern Bolivia. Wet anomalies are also forecast for eastern Venezuela and southern Chile. Some drier than normal pockets are expected scattered through western Ecuador, Peru, and northwestern Argentina.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, extending into European Russia. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional, 40+ years return period, around the Baltic Sea, Scandinavia, and well into northern European Russia.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In the Middle East, intense warm anomalies are forecast for south-central Saudi Arabia, western UAE, southwestern and eastern Yemen, and western Oman. Fars Province in southwestern Iran will be moderately warmer than normer. Moderately cooler than normal temperatures are expected in northeastern Iraq.

In Africa, South Sudan stands out with a forecast of exceptionally cooler than normal conditions. Intense warm anomalies are forecast in parts of coastal West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and both coastal and interior regions around the Gulf of Guinea from Togo through Republic of the Congo. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in eastern Algeria, Libya, Egypt, the central Sahel, Sudan, and Eritrea. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast across south-central Africa from Angola to Tanzania and northern Mozambique. Warm anomalies may reach extreme intensity in Madagascar.

Warm anomalies are forecast for nearly all of India but will be exceptional in India’s southern half. Much cooler than normal temperatures are expected in eastern Nepal and southern Bhutan.

In East Asia, moderate warm anomalies are forecast for the Tibetan Plateau, many regions in China’s eastern half, and the Korean Peninsula, but conditions may be severe to extreme in Northeast China, North Korea, and Taiwan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in Japan. Russian regions to the north of Northeast China are also likely to see severe to extreme warm anomalies.

Warmer than normal conditions are expected to blanket Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Papua. Anomalies may be especially intense in western Cambodia, northern Sumatra, and a large pocket in eastern Borneo.

Australia, too will be warmer than normal. Severe anomalies are forecast for much of the eastern half of the country and the Outback. Extreme anomalies are forecast for the southeast and in the Great Sandy and Tanami Desert regions in the north.

Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for much of the eastern half of the US, large pockets in the Northern Plains, West Coast, and Northwest. In the East, though, anomalies are expected to be severe in the Mid-Atlantic States and into the eastern portion of the Ohio River Valley. Anomalies in the Upper Midwest US and Northwest will reach across the border well into Canada.

In Mexico, conditions will be moderately warmer than normal in Baja and the central north, intensely warmer in a pocket of coastal Nayarit and in the south, and cooler in coastal Sonora. Warm anomalies are also forecast for Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama, which may be extreme in Costa Rica.

Exceptional warm anomalies are expected in South America along an extensive path following the Andes from Colombia through Ecuador, Peru, into southwestern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, as well as a pocket in the southern Atacama Desert in Chile. Similarly, exceptionally warmer than normal conditions will skirt the Atlantic from French Guiana, along Brazil’s coast, and through the eastern tip of the country. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for the northwestern region of the continent, northern Chile, and Uruguay into Santa Catarina, Brazil. Cool anomalies are forecast for a pocket in central Brazil; from central Bolivia through western Paraguay into Argentina; and in Patagonia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released November 2, 2018 which includes forecasts for November 2018 through July 2019 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued October 25 through October 31, 2018.

Technical details:

  • Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:

    • Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.

    • Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.

    • Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).

  • The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.

  • Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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