East Asia: Intense water surpluses forecast to persist in Guangxi & Guangdong
28 May 2019
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through January 2020 indicates widespread surpluses in southeastern China including exceptional surpluses in the south. Surpluses will also be widespread in much of the Tibetan Plateau. Intense deficits are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across central Xinjiang, and in northwestern Mongolia.
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through July indicates that widespread surpluses will nearly disappear in southeastern China but will persist in the south and will include exceptional anomalies from eastern Guangxi into western Guangdong. Taiwan will transition from deficit to moderate surplus and moderate surpluses are forecast along portions of the Lower and Middle Yangtze River. Intense surpluses are forecast for western Sichuan, southern Qinghai, and western Tibet. Exceptional deficits will persist in western Inner Mongolia but will downgrade in regions to the west. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, and some moderate surpluses will emerge along the Lower Yellow River. In Mongolia, moderate to severe deficits are expected in much of the country. In Japan, moderate surpluses are forecast for Kyushu and severe deficits in northern Honshu and Hokkaido.
From August through October, anomalies will downgrade significantly throughout the region. Exceptional deficits will, however, persist in a pocket of western Inner Mongolia and will increase across Xinjiang through the Tarim Basin. Some moderate deficits are forecast across central Mongolia and in Japan from northern Honshu through Hokkaido. Surpluses in southern and southeastern China will continue to shrink and downgrade leaving some moderate surpluses in, primarily, southern Hunan and Jiangxi.
The forecast for the final three months – November 2019 through January 2020 – indicates that exceptional deficits will increase in a vast stretch from western Inner Mongolia through northern Qinghai and across the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang. Some moderate deficits are forecast in Mongolia, North Korea, the northern portion of the Lower and Middle Yangtze Basin, and Taiwan. Moderate surpluses will persist in Jiangxi in southeastern China.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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