The forecast through May indicates the emergence of a vast stretch of extreme to exceptional water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Widespread surpluses will downgrade but persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches. Moderate deficits will emerge in Hainan and conditions in Taiwan will transition to near-normal. Intense deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and will increase in much of Japan.
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The forecast through April indicates a vast stretch of intense water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and into Inner Mongolia, China. Moderate surpluses will emerge on the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River. Widespread surpluses will persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches, reaching into Guangxi. Surpluses will be exceptional in Shanghai and Jiangsu. Deficits are forecast for North Korea and northern Honshu, Japan. Some surpluses are forecast for South Korea and Kyushu, Japan.
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
Through the next several months, widespread water surpluses in the center of China will shrink and downgrade, and surpluses further east in Hubei, Henan, and Anhui will transition to mild deficit. In the south, moderate to severe surpluses will increase in Yunnan and western Guangxi. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Southeast China. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in Liaoning and Jilin in the northeast, and will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and Honshu, Japan.
The May Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in East Africa, Uruguay, and Bangladesh. Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected in India, Egypt, Sudan, and Northeast China.
The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably. Deficits will increase in Northeast China; downgrade to mild in Shandong; and continue to emerge in the Southeast. Surpluses in the Yangtze Basin will diminish considerably, though exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Han River Basin. Hainan will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, as will Guangxi. Moderate deficit is forecast for North Korea. After June, water anomalies in China and Mongolia will downgrade overall.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
Exceptional water deficits will increase in Mongolia and China through April, creating a vast stretch from Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Liaoning and extreme deficits in Hunan. Deficits are forecast to spread on the Korean Peninsula and may be intense near Seoul. Conditions of intense surplus remain in the forecast from Shanghai west through the Han River (Hanjiang) watershed, and exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in northern Sichuan and Qinghai. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue to emerge around the Gulf of Tonkin and in Hainan.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.