ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST SEPTEMBER 2019

16 September 2019

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in June 2019 and running through May 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast September 16, 2019 (pdf).

United States: Widespread water surpluses observed in prior months will shrink through November. However, a broad column of surplus is forecast from southern North Dakota reaching into north-central Texas with intense anomalies in South Dakota. Other areas of surplus include eastern Nevada into western Utah, Wyoming, and California from San Francisco through the southwest. A pocket of exceptional deficit is expected in the central Everglades.

Canada: The forecast through November indicates some moderate water deficits around Montreal and between Toronto and Ottawa, and severe deficits southeast of Winnipeg. A vast arc of exceptional deficit will persist in northern Quebec from Lake Mistassini to the province’s eastern border. Intense deficits will also persist in central and northeastern Manitoba and central and northwestern Alberta. Surpluses are forecast from north-central Alberta into northwestern Manitoba.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through November indicates that normal water conditions will return to much of Mexico but intense deficits will persist around the Gulf of Campeche. Extreme deficits are expected in southern Belize, moderate surpluses in Costa Rica, and intense surpluses in the Bahamas and central Cuba.

South America: The forecast through November indicates that, while water deficits will continue to dominate much of the northern bulk of the continent, the extent of exceptional deficit will diminish. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the western Amazon Basin of Brazil and extreme to exceptional deficits in the eastern portion. Other areas of intense deficit include Pará, Maranhão, French Guiana, and northern Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, northern Argentina, Uruguay.

Europe: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits in Central and Eastern Europe will shrink and moderate overall, but intense deficits are forecast in Finland and around the Baltic Sea. Conditions in Mediterranean Europe are expected to be relatively normal. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland and northern United Kingdom, and northern European Russia.

Africa: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, particularly in the south, where merely mild deficits are expected. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast across the north and along the southwest bank of the Red Sea. Surpluses will persist in pockets of the western Sahel, emerge in pockets around the Gulf of Guinea, and increase in East Africa around Tanzania.

Middle East: The forecast through November indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in the region from southeastern Turkey and northern Syria through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran, and along the southeastern shore of the Caspian Sea and the Iran-Turkmen border. Exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in a vast block of central Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia. Surpluses are forecast for the Ob River Basin and along the Yenisei River, but intense deficits are expected in the eastern Yenisei Basin. In southern Turkmenistan intense surpluses are forecast; surpluses are also expected in Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and eastern Uzbekistan.

South Asia: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits in India will nearly disappear, as areas of deficit normalize or transition to surplus. Surpluses will persist in a vast stretch from Gujarat through Rajasthan, increasing in Madhya Pradesh. Surpluses are also forecast from Mumbai into Karnataka, and for central Uttar Pradesh. Southern India and Sri Lanka will transition from deficit to surplus. Widespread surpluses will persist in central Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will be the dominant anomaly in Southeast Asia, while deficits emerge in much of Malaysia and Indonesia. Deficits will be exceptional in Malaysia. Surpluses are expected to reach exceptional intensity on the Mekong River through eastern Cambodia. Thailand will transition from intense deficit to surpluses in the north and generally normal conditions in the south.

East Asia: The forecast through November indicates that water anomalies will shrink and downgrade in the region though surpluses will remain widespread in several vast areas of China including the southeast and northeast. Deficits will downgrade on the Shandong Peninsula, retreat from South Korea, and persist in North Korea, especially around Pyongyang. Near-normal conditions will return to a vast extent across the middle of China and the south. Moderate surpluses will persist in Kyushu, Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional water deficits in eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland to Melbourne, including the eastern Murray-Darling Basin. Deficits will shrink in Tasmania but will be severe. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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