The May Outlook includes a forecast of exceptional warm anomalies in a number of places including northern Alaska; the State of São Paulo, Brazil and through the Andes from Colombia through northern Chile; and, around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa. Central Tanzania is expected to be much wetter than normal. Widespread, moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast in a broad path in the U.S. from Michigan through Louisiana.
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The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade, with moderate anomalies throughout most of the continent, some pockets of greater intensity, and surpluses in Tanzania. Exceptional deficits are forecast in the Ethiopian Highlands. Other areas of significant deficit include Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Guinea-Bissau, central Republic of the Congo, eastern Angola, western Zambia and central Zambia and along the Zambezi River, and northern Zimbabwe.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2018 through November 2019 include: French Guiana, Finland, Latvia, Angola, Namibia, United Arab Emirates, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas, Texas, and Tennessee (US), Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2019.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent, becoming primarily moderate across the central breadth and mild in the south. Deficits in the north will increase and intensify, with moderate to extreme deficits in the Sahara and deficits reaching exceptional intensity in parts of the Sahel and into western Ethiopia. Intense deficits will linger in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Surpluses will persist in western Tanzania.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits will persist on much of the continent, but the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish considerably. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast across northern and central Africa along with pockets of exceptional deficit. Anomalies will be intense in Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Lesotho. Mild to moderate deficits are forecast for southern Africa. Intense surpluses will persist in western Tanzania.
The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably. However, areas with notably intense conditions include western Ethiopia; pockets of northern Somalia, Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon; southwestern Angola into Namibia; and, Lesotho and the Orange River region of Northern Cape, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, southern Congo into western DRC and northern Angola, and south-central Chad.
The forecast through December indicates that intense deficits will shrink considerably across northern Africa but emerge across the southern Sahara and into the Sahel. Intense deficits are forecast for the Nile River and western Ethiopia. Mild deficits are forecast for much of Africa’s southern half. Areas of surplus include southern Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, coastal and northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and southern Kenya.
Though intense water deficits will persist in northern Africa over the next few months, exceptional deficits will shrink in the north and along the Red Sea, and will nearly disappear from the rest of the continent. Intense deficits will persist in Zambia’s Kafue River watershed. Areas of surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, some countries along the northern Gulf of Guinea, central Chad, and northwestern Zambia. Surpluses will be intense in East Africa.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2018 through April 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Sichuan, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 August 2018.