Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses persist in S Turkmenistan
19 September 2019
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2020 indicates intense water surpluses along Turkmenistan’s southern border, intense deficits in much of the remainder of the country as well as in Uzbekistan and across its border into western Kazakhstan.
Surpluses are expected in pockets of northern and eastern Kazakhstan and along portions of the Ishim and Esil Rivers. Surpluses are also forecast in eastern Kyrgyzstan, central Tajikistan, and eastern Uzbekistan.
In Russia, surpluses are expected in the Northern European Plain and will be exceptional in the Vychegda Lowland. In the Volga River Basin, deficits are forecast in the Lower Volga region approaching the mouth of the river near the Caspian Sea, surpluses are forecast north of Volgograd and around Samara and Kazan, and moderate deficits in the Middle Volga region south of Nizhny Novgorod.
In the Yenisei River Basin, surpluses are forecast in the Lower Yenisei region, along much of the river itself, and in several oblasts west of Lake Baikal. Deficits are forecast in the Yenisei’s eastern basin and will be intense in the region of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska and the Upper Reaches of the Podkamennaya Tunguska.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through November indicates that surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia with exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland. In the Volga River region, surpluses are forecast around the Kuybyshev Reservoir between Samara to Kazan, but deficits are forecast south of Nizhny Novgorod.
Widespread surpluses will persist in the Ob River Basin and will be intense west of the intersection of the Tobol, Irtysh, and Ob Rivers. Anomalies will also be intense in the Upper Ob region north of Novosibirsk. Intense deficits will persist along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob.
In Kazakhstan, surpluses will persist in pockets of the north, east, and in the south along the Ile and Syr Darya Rivers. Deficits in the west will diminish. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan and a pocket in the west, and in a wide band along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.
From December 2019 through February 2020, intense, widespread surpluses will persist in the Northern European Plain in Russia but will shrink somewhat in the Western Siberian Plain. Surpluses will persist on the Ob River and in several oblasts west of Lake Baikal. Deficits will persist along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region, and north of Lake Baikal. Deficits will emerge in northern Kazakhstan, particularly in Aktobe Region and across its border into the Ural River region of Russia. Surpluses are forecast Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and southern Turkmenistan. Deficits will disappear south of Nizhny Novgorod in Russia’s Volga River Basin and in the Caucasus Region between the Black and Caspian Seas. Surpluses will emerge on the Lower Volga.
The forecast for the final months – March through May 2020 – indicates moderate to severe surpluses across the Northern European Plain and in the Western Siberian Plain, deficits along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob and in western regions of the Central Siberian Plateau, and relatively normal conditions in Central Asia.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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