The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region. Moderate deficits are forecast for northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border well into southern Russia, but deficits may be severe along the Ural River. Surpluses are forecast in the eastern and southern Ob River watershed of Russia, northern and eastern Kazakhstan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.
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Central Asia & Russia
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will moderate overall in Central Asia, though conditions may be more severe along the Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan, the Zaravshan River in eastern Uzbekistan, and the Ural River through northwestern Kazakhstan into Russia. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in the Caucasus. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and in the Tom River watershed, and wide band of surplus will extend to the Gulf of Ob.
In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.
Water surpluses will shrink in European Russia, transitioning to both deficit and surplus the Northern European Plain. Widespread deficits along the Pechora Sea through Yamal Peninsula and into the Central Siberian Plateau will retreat considerably. Surpluses in the Upper Ob and Tom River regions will diminish but remain widespread. Deficits will increase in the Bolshoy Yugan River watershed in the Middle Ob. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan, and deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, central Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Through July, water surpluses will shrink in European Russia. The Lower Ob will transition from surplus to mild deficit, moderate to exceptional deficits will develop in the Middle Ob region, and surpluses in the Upper Ob region will downgrade. Surpluses will downgrade in the Tom River Basin, upgrade on the Ishim River, and persist on the Irtysh. Intense surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan. Deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and may be severe along the Amu Darya and Zaravshan Rivers.
The forecast through June indicates that water surplus will shrink in European Russia, persist in the Tom River watershed, and transition to deficit in the Ob River watershed. Deficits will emerge surrounding Orenburg on the Ural River, and between the Lower Tunguska and the Angara Rivers in the Yenisei watershed. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will emerge and persist in the north, but diminish elsewhere; deficits will emerge in the west, which will be extreme on the Ural River. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.
Exceptional water surplus in European Russia will shrink and downgrade, though widespread surpluses will continue to emerge and will remain intense from St. Petersburg to the Rybinsk Reservoir and in Murmansk. Exceptional surpluses will emerge in the Vakh River Basin stretching east across the Yenisei River between the Angara and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Deficits near Yekaterinburg will upgrade, deficits around Yamal will downgrade, and deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will moderate. Kazakhstan will transition from surplus to deficit. After April, much of the region will transition to deficits of varying severity.
The forecast through March indicates exceptional surpluses in European Russia, along the Middle Ob River, the Tom River Basin, and Aktobe Region, Kazakhstan. Surpluses are also forecast for much of the Yenisei River. Exceptional deficits are expected in the Yamal Peninsula. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After March, surpluses in Russia are forecast to diminish. Deficits will downgrade in Yamal, persist in Turkmenistan, and spread in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Caucasus, western Kyrgyzstan and western Tajikistan.
In the near-term, surpluses are forecast in Russia along the Sukona River; the Upper Volga River, Volga Uplands, Lower Volga, and Transvolga Region; and the Ob, Vakh, and Tom Rivers. Deficits will persist in the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in Aktobe, Kostanay, and western Akmola Regions in Kazakhstan but widespread intense deficits will emerge in the northeastern part of the country. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to moderate. After February, deficits will spread in Central Asia and Russia.