The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in the Northern European Plain reaching across the Urals through the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are expected around the Gulf of Ob and in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.
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Central Asia & Russia
The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia. Surpluses are forecast for the Ob River Basin and along the Yenisei River, but intense deficits are expected in the eastern Yenisei Basin. In southern Turkmenistan intense surpluses are forecast; surpluses are also expected in Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and eastern Uzbekistan.
The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia and will persist in the Ob River Basin. Deficits are forecast along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, and in the regions of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska and the Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Surpluses are forecast in western and eastern Uzbekistan, northern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and central Tajikistan.
The forecast through September indicates that surpluses will shrink in Russia’s Northern European Plain and persist in the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are forecast for much of the Yenisei River Basin. Intense surpluses in southern Turkmenistan will begin to transition, with conditions of both surplus and deficit as deficits emerge. Deficits will also emerge in northeastern Uzbekistan.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates widespread surpluses in the Ob River Basin, deficits in much of the Yenisei River Basin, surpluses in the Lower Volga, and deficits in the Middle and Upper Volga regions. Intense surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan but both deficits and surpluses are also forecast as transitions occur. Surpluses are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, western Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and northern Kazakhstan.
The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan. Deficits will emerge in northern Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and around Aktobe in northwestern Kazakhstan. Surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will shrink and moderate overall, and deficits will emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. In the Volga region, surpluses will persist in the Lower Volga northeast of Volgograd, and deficits are forecast in the Middle Volga region.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses in the Ob River Basin of Russia will shrink and moderate, and intense deficits will emerge in the Tom River Basin’s southern reaches. Intense deficits will also emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. Severe deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, and eastern Uzbekistan’s Fergana Valley. Surpluses are expected in eastern Kyrgyzstan and southern Turkmenistan.
The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will downgrade but remain widespread. Other areas of surplus include eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and southern Turkmenistan. Deficits are forecast for the Volga River Basin, the Fergana Valley in eastern Uzbekistan and into Kyrgyzstan, central Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan. Deficits will be intense in the Fergana Valley.
The forecast through April indicates that water surpluses in the Ob River Basin of Russia will downgrade somewhat. Exceptional surpluses are expected in the northern Yenisei River watershed. Surpluses will increase in the Northern European Plain from the Kola Peninsula in the west past the Vychegda Lowland. Deficits are forecast for the Upper Volga River Basin and Trans Volga region of Russia, western Kazakhstan, and eastern Tajikistan. Deficits will be severe in the Upper Volga Basin.
The forecast through March indicates intense water surpluses in the Ob and Yenisei River Basins in Russia. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the Ural River Watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border into Russia, and in the Upper Volga River Basin and parts of Trans Volga. Primarily moderate surpluses are expected along the Ertis (Irtysh), Esil, and Ile Rivers in Kazakhstan, and the Zarafshon River in eastern Uzbekistan. Severe deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west.