Africa: Water deficits to emerge in Botswana

23 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2021 indicates intense water deficits across northern Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon, southwestern Namibia, central Malawi, and southern Mozambique.

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Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in West Africa; south of the Benue River in Nigeria; eastern Central African Republic; northwestern Ethiopia; the central Congo River Basin; northern Angola; southern Zambia; Zimbabwe; Malawi; Mozambique; Madagascar’s west-central coast; Swaziland; and Northern Cape, Western Cape, and KwaZulu Natal in South Africa.

Widespread surpluses are expected in East Africa and will be especially intense in Tanzania, western Kenya, and along the Victoria Nile through Uganda. Intense surpluses are also forecast for northern Nigeria. Surpluses elsewhere include southern Ethiopia, the White Nile, capital regions of the Congos, west-central Angola, and South Africa from southern Orange Free State into Eastern Cape.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits will increase and intensify across northern Africa and will include large regions with exceptional anomalies. Nearly normal conditions are forecast across the Sahel though a few areas of surplus are expected nearby including northern Nigeria. Surpluses in East Africa will remain widespread, particularly in Tanzania where anomalies will be extreme to exceptional. In Ethiopia and Eritrea, exceptional deficits will retreat; surpluses will downgrade slightly in southern Ethiopia but emerge in the north and nearby in southern Eritrea. Other areas of surplus include northeastern Gabon, the capital regions of the Congos, west-central Angola, and South Africa from southern Orange Free State through Lesotho and central Eastern Cape.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_3mo_twitter.png

Exceptional deficits will retreat from southwestern Namibia but emerge in the north-central region and along Angola’s northern coast near Luanda; exceptional deficits will also emerge in south-central Botswana. Deficits from southern Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea into western Gabon, though downgrading, will be intense. Deficits are also forecast in Northern Cape, South Africa where anomalies will reach exceptional intensity, and in eastern regions of the nation through Swaziland. Deficits along Madagascar’s west-central coast will downgrade.

From September through November, deficits across North Africa will shrink considerably and moderate, with pockets of surplus re-emerging in Egypt. Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa, shrinking somewhat in Kenya but increasing in Uganda. Surpluses will persist in Ethiopia and along the While Nile in South Sudan and will emerge in a pocket of southern Sudan and along the Nile near Khartoum. Surpluses in northern Nigeria will nearly disappear. In South Africa, surpluses will persist from southern Orange Free State into Eastern Cape and deficits in the nation will moderate.

The forecast for the final quarter – December through February – indicates that normal conditions will return to much of northern Africa and the continent’s south. Some intense deficits will emerge in West Africa and in Togo, Benin, and northwestern Nigeria. Surpluses in East Africa will shrink considerably, persisting primarily in Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Morocco’s agricultural minister ordered a halt to irrigation in the drought-stressed agricultural region of Souss in early June when dam levels dropped to 17 percent. Morocco is in its second year of drought and this year’s wheat production is expected to fall 49 percent below the long-term average. So far this year, the federal government has distributed 350 million dirhams (US $36.4 million) in drought relief to farmers.

When the water level in the three dams that supply Zimbabwe’s second largest city, Bulawayo, dropped to 30 percent last month, city authorities began water rationing. With piped water available only one day a week, the city’s 650,000 residents began sleeping overnight in lines formed to access water from tanker deliveries. The drought, the worst in many years, makes COVID-19 hand-washing protocols nearly impossible and social distancing untenable as people jostle for position in water lines. Desperate for water, some residents are turning to unprotected sources, leading to water-borne diseases resulting in death.

Flooding in East Africa is affecting coffee production in the region, impacting both local livelihoods and the export market whose economic viability depends on the area’s Arabic bean. In tiny Rwanda, 28 people from coffee-growing communities lost their lives and much local infrastructure was destroyed. In Uganda, where the robusta variety is grown, the quality of the crop is expected to decline as excessive rainfall impedes the drying process. Uganda is Africa’s largest exporter of coffee.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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